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Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation

664K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
Black Expected Score48.0%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.1%Based on 664K games
0%48.0%100%
Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.1%
Outcome Distribution
46.2%3.6%50.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Qxd5
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=664K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 48.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.1%), based on 664K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 47% → 41%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 47.3% win rate (19,346 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.1% win rate (46,149 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (82,298 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (117,626 games)
  • 1600-1799: 46.4% win rate (139,497 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.3% win rate (133,900 games)
  • 2000-2199: 45.5% win rate (79,216 games)
  • 2200-2499: 44.1% win rate (40,030 games)
  • 2500+: 41.4% win rate (6,054 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (47%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 47.3% win rate (1,656 games)
  • Bullet: 46.8% win rate (332,096 games)
  • Blitz: 45.8% win rate (273,972 games)
  • Rapid: 44.7% win rate (54,461 games)
  • Classical: 41.6% win rate (1,931 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (80 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (9,322 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.8% expected score (7,543 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.3% expected score (2,390 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 38.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (144 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (22,376 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (18,482 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.2% expected score (5,062 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.3% expected score (85 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 48.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (38,718 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (34,597 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (8,519 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (265 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (631 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (52,377 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (51,872 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (12,219 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (527 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (366 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.4% expected score (63,777 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (62,320 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (12,506 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (528 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (149 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (67,190 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (57,137 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (9,069 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (355 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 32.5% expected score (67 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (47,790 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (27,450 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (3,773 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (136 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (25,775 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (13,311 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (905 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (4,771 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 41.4% expected score (1,260 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 34.7% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Declined
50.9%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Marshall Defense
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Queen's Knight Variation
52.8%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense
53.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Baltic Defense
52.3%
Queen's Gambit Declined: Normal Defense
50.4%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation, Costa's Line
53.4%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 664K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 50.7% win rate for white (134K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.2%) by 1.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 82K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 118K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 139K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 134K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 6.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 49.2%-53.2%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.4%) win rate for white (332K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.7%-50.0%) win rate for white (274K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-51.1%) win rate for white (54K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 51.0%-54.8%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Declined: Chigorin Defense, Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.