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Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation

745K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.4%Range (90% confident): 57.3% – 57.5%Based on 745K games
0%57.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 57.3% – 57.5%
Outcome Distribution
55.4%3.9%40.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.e3
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation
Analyzen=745K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 57.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 57.3% and 57.5%), based on 745K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +16.0% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.4% · UltraBullet best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 56% → 49%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 55.7% win rate (36,459 games)
  • 1000-1199: 56.8% win rate (73,021 games)
  • 1200-1399: 56.4% win rate (105,029 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.9% win rate (142,109 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.9% win rate (150,295 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.7% win rate (127,036 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.2% win rate (70,809 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.1% win rate (32,991 games)
  • 2500+: 48.9% win rate (7,169 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (64%), worst in Bullet (55%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 64.1% win rate (1,270 games)
  • Bullet: 54.7% win rate (261,791 games)
  • Blitz: 55.0% win rate (361,296 games)
  • Rapid: 57.5% win rate (114,668 games)
  • Classical: 62.7% win rate (5,893 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 72.2% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (9,508 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (18,819 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 59.1% expected score (8,067 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 65.1% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 71.9% expected score (108 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 57.1% expected score (22,368 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.1% expected score (35,719 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 60.5% expected score (14,543 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 66.5% expected score (283 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 63.5% expected score (217 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (34,754 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.6% expected score (49,293 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (19,753 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 64.5% expected score (1,012 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 68.5% expected score (348 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (45,781 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (69,089 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 60.1% expected score (24,804 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 64.8% expected score (2,087 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (370 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (52,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (72,944 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.0% expected score (22,942 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 66.1% expected score (1,451 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.5% expected score (128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (47,358 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.0% expected score (62,411 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (16,391 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (748 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.5% expected score (56 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.8% expected score (28,550 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (35,677 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (6,312 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.2% expected score (214 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (15,873 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (15,291 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (1,763 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (5,011 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (2,053 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (93 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 72.2% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Queen's Gambit Accepted
53.1%
Variations (5)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Accelerated Mannheim Variation
49.8%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense
50.8%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Borisenko-Furman Variation
49.2%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Alekhine Defense, Haberditz Variation
53.0%
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Bogoljubov Defense
52.2%
Continuations (1)
Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation, Traditional System
52.6%
Analyze Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 745K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation perform best?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 56.8% win rate for white (73K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (64.1%) outperforms Bullet (54.7%) by 9.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 55.7% (90% CI: 55.2%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 36K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 73K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 56.4% (90% CI: 56.1%-56.6%) win rate for white, based on 105K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 55.7%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 142K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.7%-55.1%) win rate for white, based on 150K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.5%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 127K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 55.2% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 33K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.9%-49.8%) win rate for white, based on 7.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 64.1% (90% CI: 61.8%-66.3%) win rate for white (1.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 54.6%-54.9%) win rate for white (262K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.9%-55.1%) win rate for white (361K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 57.5% (90% CI: 57.3%-57.8%) win rate for white (115K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation has a 62.7% (90% CI: 61.6%-63.7%) win rate for white (5.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation a good opening?

The Queen's Gambit Accepted: Normal Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.4% (90% CI: 55.3%-55.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.