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Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation

722K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.7%Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 55.8%Based on 722K games
0%55.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 55.6% – 55.8%
Outcome Distribution
53.4%4.5%42.1%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.dxe5
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation
Analyzen=722K
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.5%

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 55.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.6% and 55.8%), based on 722K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 90.9 · Trap factor: +9.3 · n=722K

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.4% win rate (99,176 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.6% win rate (119,228 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.6% win rate (135,620 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.9% win rate (137,302 games)
  • 1600-1799: 53.4% win rate (106,544 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.7% win rate (70,954 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.4% win rate (36,780 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.4% win rate (13,664 games)
  • 2500+: 50.9% win rate (2,499 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (59%), worst in UltraBullet (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 49.2% win rate (4,825 games)
  • Bullet: 52.1% win rate (273,220 games)
  • Blitz: 53.9% win rate (307,520 games)
  • Rapid: 54.8% win rate (130,229 games)
  • Classical: 58.5% win rate (5,973 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 40.0% expected score (78 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (19,913 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (51,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (27,478 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (232 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (309 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (32,814 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 57.4% expected score (54,899 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (30,340 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (866 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (745 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (47,058 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (58,314 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (27,953 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 59.2% expected score (1,550 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 46.4% expected score (1,270 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (53,321 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 57.1% expected score (58,657 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 58.1% expected score (22,108 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.0% expected score (1,946 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (1,199 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (48,086 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (42,114 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 58.2% expected score (14,147 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 65.0% expected score (998 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.7% expected score (693 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (38,203 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (25,817 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (5,938 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 65.0% expected score (303 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (372 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (22,351 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (12,115 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.0% expected score (1,873 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 60.7% expected score (69 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 58.6% expected score (155 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (9,344 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (3,785 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (371 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (2,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (344 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (21 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Philidor Defense
50.2%
Variations (5)
Philidor Defense: Albin-Blackburne Gambit
44.3%
Philidor Defense: Berger Variation
40.3%
Philidor Defense: Bird Gambit
53.3%
Philidor Defense: Boden Variation
49.4%
Philidor Defense: Exchange Variation
50.5%
Continuations (3)
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Klein Variation
52.8%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Rellstab Variation
52.9%
Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation, Sokolsky Variation
51.2%
Analyze Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 722K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation perform best?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.6% win rate for white (119K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (58.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (49.2%) by 9.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a sharpness score of 95.5 (very decisive), meaning 95.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 99K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.4%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 119K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 54.3%-54.8%) win rate for white, based on 136K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 137K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 107K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 37K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.8% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.2%-52.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 8.2% draw rate.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.4%) win rate for white (4.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.3%) win rate for white (273K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 53.8%-54.0%) win rate for white (308K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.0%) win rate for white (130K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation has a 58.5% (90% CI: 57.4%-59.5%) win rate for white (6.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation a good opening?

The Philidor Defense: Nimzowitsch Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.3%-53.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.