TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl

146K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.8%Based on 146K games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.3% – 48.8%
Outcome Distribution
46.6%3.8%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...c5
Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl
Analyzen=146K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 48.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.3% and 48.8%), based on 146K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.0% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.0% win rate (331 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.4% win rate (969 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (2,665 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.5% win rate (6,679 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.7% win rate (13,945 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.1% win rate (26,895 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.4% win rate (39,356 games)
  • 2200-2499: 46.8% win rate (42,125 games)
  • 2500+: 47.2% win rate (13,444 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (50%), worst in Classical (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.4% win rate (976 games)
  • Bullet: 46.1% win rate (96,311 games)
  • Blitz: 47.4% win rate (43,676 games)
  • Rapid: 48.8% win rate (5,278 games)
  • Classical: 40.4% win rate (168 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 40.3% expected score (142 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (152 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (34 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (471 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (400 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (15 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.7% expected score (1,296 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (1,104 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (240 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 23.9% expected score (10 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 41.3% expected score (148 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.2% expected score (3,058 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (2,801 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.9% expected score (654 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.9% expected score (424 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (6,378 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (5,886 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (1,226 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (178 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (14,215 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (10,999 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (1,441 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (62 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 62.4% expected score (124 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (24,342 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (13,733 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (1,120 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 51.3% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 47.7% expected score (63 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (33,520 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (8,074 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 56.1% expected score (460 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (8 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (12,889 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (527 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Modern Defense
48.7%
Variations (5)
Modern Defense: Anti-Modern
53.1%
Modern Defense: Averbakh System
49.0%
Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch
49.5%
Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation
45.4%
Modern Defense: Bishop Attack
49.2%
Analyze Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.9%) win rate for white, based on 146K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl perform best?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 47.4% win rate for white (39K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (50.4%) outperforms Classical (40.4%) by 10.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 45.0% (90% CI: 40.5%-49.5%) win rate for white, based on 331 Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.4% (90% CI: 44.8%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 969 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 45.5% (90% CI: 44.0%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 44.5% (90% CI: 43.5%-45.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.0%-46.4%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.2% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.9%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.8%-53.0%) win rate for white (976 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 46.1% (90% CI: 45.9%-46.4%) win rate for white (96K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 47.4% (90% CI: 47.0%-47.8%) win rate for white (44K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.9%) win rate for white (5.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl has a 40.4% (90% CI: 34.3%-46.7%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Modern Pterodactyl is statistically balanced with a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.4%-46.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.