Modern Defense: Kotov Variation

380K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

View As

Tough Sell

White Expected Score48.0%Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.2%Based on 380K games

0%48.0%100%

Range (90% confident): 47.9% – 48.2%

Outcome Distribution

45.8%4.3%49.8%

Win

Draw

Loss

4...Nc6

Modern Defense: Kotov Variation

Analyzen=380K

Avg Length36 moves

Sharpness96%

Draw Rate4.3%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 48.0% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 47.9% and 48.2%), based on 380K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.9% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~49%)

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (52%), worst in UltraBullet (40%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999	—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+	—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (254 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.8% expected score (156 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.3% expected score (26 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 48.7% expected score (1,304 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (930 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (109 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (3,685 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (3,773 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (456 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (9 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (12 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (8,680 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 47.7% expected score (10,382 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (1,664 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (49 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (64 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.4% expected score (17,215 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.3% expected score (25,807 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (3,728 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (151 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.6% expected score (38 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (31,320 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (57,571 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (6,071 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (226 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (39,498 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (67,800 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.8% expected score (5,999 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (125 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (42,118 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (36,309 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (2,446 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 62.7% expected score (34 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (10,424 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (1,966 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.4% expected score (61 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent

Modern Defense

48.7%

Variations (5)

Modern Defense: Anti-Modern

53.1%

Modern Defense: Averbakh System

49.0%

Modern Defense: Averbakh Variation, Pseudo-Sämisch

49.5%

Modern Defense: Beefeater Variation

45.4%

Modern Defense: Bishop Attack

49.2%

Analyze Modern Defense: Kotov Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate?

The Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 380K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation perform best?

The Modern Defense: Kotov Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 48.0% win rate for white (12K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (52.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (40.1%) by 11.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation?

The Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 45.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 437 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-50.6%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.9% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.2%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.2%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.8%-46.5%) win rate for white, based on 47K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 95K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 45.1% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 46.8% (90% CI: 46.5%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 81K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.3% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 48.0% (90% CI: 47.3%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 33.1%-47.3%) win rate for white (127 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-45.9%) win rate for white (154K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.0%) win rate for white (205K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.2%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 48.6%-55.3%) win rate for white (598 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.6%.

Is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation a good opening?

The Modern Defense: Kotov Variation is slightly favors black with a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the Modern Defense: Kotov Variation expected score for White?