Mikenas Defense

4 variations · 4.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

1...Nc6

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

47.2%

40%55%

Floor47.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 4.1M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

45.2%3.9%50.9%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 4.1M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #44 of 62
Games in this context: 4.1M
Best context: 56.2% at 0-999 UltraBullet
Worst context: 36.6% at 1400-1599 Classical
Variations measured: 4
Average game length: 33 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian VariationBest here

1.d4 Nc6 2.c4 e5 3.d5 Nce7

Floor 55.9% · 308K games

56.0%

#2Mikenas Defense

1.d4 Nc6

Floor 46.4% · 3.7M games

46.5%

#3Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation

1.d4 Nc6 2.c4 e5 3.d5 Nd4

Floor 45.9% · 64K games

46.2%

#4Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit

1.d4 Nc6 2.c4 e5 3.dxe5 Nxe5 4.Nc3 Nxc4

Floor 42.3% · 11K games

43.1%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 49.6% at 0-999, 42.5% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.2% expected score (785 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (98,050 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (327,150 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (222,632 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 50.5% expected score (2,543 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.1% expected score (2,078 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (116,753 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.6% expected score (250,916 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.0% expected score (149,896 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 43.7% expected score (5,851 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.4% expected score (4,952 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (145,992 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (236,663 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.1% expected score (110,987 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (7,938 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (11,313 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (173,600 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (221,479 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (83,635 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 36.6% expected score (7,683 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (16,408 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.2% expected score (193,274 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (213,805 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (56,612 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 38.4% expected score (3,258 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (10,604 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (243,885 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (244,440 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 48.8% expected score (38,450 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 46.0% expected score (1,283 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.6% expected score (3,437 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (234,185 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (211,316 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (20,233 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (628 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 45.0% expected score (1,183 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (233,426 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 47.6% expected score (84,741 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (4,961 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (108 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 33.5% expected score (38 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (53,478 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.0% expected score (6,267 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (103 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 44.1% expected score (7 games)

4 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation308K games

Winning56.0%Floor 55.9%

Mikenas Defense3.7M games

Losing46.5%Floor 46.4%

Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation64K games

Losing46.2%Floor 45.9%

Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit11K games

Losing43.1%Floor 42.3%

Analyze Mikenas Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Mikenas Defense family scores 47.2% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 47.2% — from 4.1M Lichess games across 4 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 4.1M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Mikenas Defense win rate?

Across the Mikenas Defense's 4 variations, Black wins 45.2%, draws 3.9% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.2%. It rests on 4.1M rated games from Lichess.

How many Mikenas Defense variations are there?

4 Mikenas Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Mikenas Defense perform best?

The Mikenas Defense family performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 50.3% (470K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Mikenas Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Mikenas Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 47.3% in Blitz (1.8M games) against 44.9% in Rapid (688K games).

How sharp is the Mikenas Defense?

Mikenas Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Mikenas Defense a good opening family?

The Mikenas Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 45.2% and loses 50.9%. Results differ between its 4 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.