What is the Mikenas Defense expected score for White?
Snapshot
Overall, the Mikenas Defense family has a 52.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.8% and 52.9%), aggregated from 4 variations and 4.1M Lichess games.
Mikenas Defense
4 variations · 4.1M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Key Finding
Mikenas Defense gives White a 52.9% expected score — a strong opening choice.
With a minimum advantage of 5.6%, this opening reliably outperforms the baseline 50% expected score.
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Rating
Time
White Expected Score0.0%Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 52.9%Aggregated from 4 variations
0%52.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.8% – 52.9%
ContextOverall · n=4.1M
Outcome Distribution
50.9%3.9%45.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
1...Nc6
Mikenas Defense
Variations4
Games (Context)4.1M
Avg Length33 moves
Draw Rate3.9%
What Should I Play?
Player-controlled continuations for White · Overall · limited data
No continuation list is available for this context yet (needs more games).
Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.
White Win% by Rating
Stable across ratings (~51%)
0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+
- 0-999: 50.7% win rate (651,160 games)
- 1000-1199: 53.7% win rate (525,494 games)
- 1200-1399: 53.6% win rate (506,532 games)
- 1400-1599: 52.7% win rate (497,710 games)
- 1600-1799: 50.6% win rate (483,357 games)
- 1800-1999: 48.5% win rate (538,662 games)
- 2000-2199: 47.7% win rate (469,799 games)
- 2200-2499: 49.2% win rate (324,419 games)
- 2500+: 49.6% win rate (59,893 games)
White Win% by Time Control
Best in Classical (56%), worst in Blitz (51%)
UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical
- UltraBullet: 51.1% win rate (50,798 games)
- Bullet: 50.5% win rate (1,492,643 games)
- Blitz: 50.5% win rate (1,796,777 games)
- Rapid: 52.5% win rate (687,509 games)
- Classical: 56.4% win rate (29,299 games)
Rating vs Time Control Matrix
Click cells to filter · White expected scores
White% by Rating × Time Control
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (785 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (98,050 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (327,150 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (222,632 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 49.5% expected score (2,543 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.0% expected score (2,078 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (116,753 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (250,916 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (149,896 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (5,851 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.6% expected score (4,952 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (145,992 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (236,663 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (110,987 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 60.5% expected score (7,938 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (11,313 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (173,600 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (221,479 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (83,635 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 63.5% expected score (7,683 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.9% expected score (16,408 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (193,274 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (213,805 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (56,612 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.7% expected score (3,258 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.5% expected score (10,604 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (243,885 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (244,440 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (38,450 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.0% expected score (1,283 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (3,437 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (234,185 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.1% expected score (211,316 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (20,233 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (628 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (1,183 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.1% expected score (233,426 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (84,741 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (4,961 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (108 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 66.5% expected score (38 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (53,478 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (6,267 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.7% expected score (103 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.
Variations (4)
Analyze Mikenas Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Mikenas Defense win rate?
The Mikenas Defense family has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-50.9%) win rate for white, aggregated from 4 variations and 4.1M rated games from Lichess.
How many Mikenas Defense variations are there?
This analysis covers 4 Mikenas Defense variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.
At what rating does the Mikenas Defense perform best?
The Mikenas Defense family performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (525K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.
Is the Mikenas Defense better in blitz or rapid?
Classical (56.4%) outperforms Blitz (50.5%) by 5.9% across all Mikenas Defense variations.
How sharp is the Mikenas Defense?
Mikenas Defense games are 96.1% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 33 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.
Is the Mikenas Defense a good opening family?
The Mikenas Defense family is statistically favors white overall with a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-50.9%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 4 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.