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Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation

64K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.9%Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.2%Based on 64K games
0%53.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
52.5%2.7%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...Nd4
Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation
Analyzen=64K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 53.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 54.2%), based on 64K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.2% · Classical best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~54%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 53.5% win rate (6,741 games)
  • 1000-1199: 53.0% win rate (10,719 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.4% win rate (12,391 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.1% win rate (12,844 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.4% win rate (10,281 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.9% win rate (6,799 games)
  • 2000-2199: 52.7% win rate (3,224 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.6% win rate (1,166 games)
  • 2500+: 52.8% win rate (115 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (60%), worst in Bullet (51%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.8% win rate (826 games)
  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (27,028 games)
  • Blitz: 52.7% win rate (24,929 games)
  • Rapid: 54.3% win rate (10,953 games)
  • Classical: 59.5% win rate (544 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,589 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (3,621 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 57.4% expected score (1,488 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 44.7% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.2% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (3,292 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (4,838 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (2,451 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (62 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (137 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (4,488 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (5,014 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (2,617 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 63.9% expected score (135 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (331 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (5,488 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (4,599 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (2,241 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 62.4% expected score (185 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 55.0% expected score (161 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (4,904 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (3,705 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.7% expected score (1,391 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (120 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.9% expected score (49 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.6% expected score (3,852 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (2,243 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (623 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 63.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.2% expected score (2,264 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (797 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 61.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (1,042 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (107 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 76.0% expected score (12 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (109 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (5 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Mikenas Defense
51.6%
Variations (2)
Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation
42.4%
Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit
55.4%
Analyze Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate?

The Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 64K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation perform best?

The Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (6.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (59.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (51.8%) by 7.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation?

The Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 52.5%-54.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 6.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 54.6% (90% CI: 52.2%-57.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 45.2%-60.3%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 48.9%-54.6%) win rate for white (826 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.7%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.8%-51.8%) win rate for white (27K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.9%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.2%) win rate for white (25K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 54.3% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.1%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation has a 59.5% (90% CI: 56.0%-62.9%) win rate for white (544 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation a good opening?

The Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation is statistically favors white with a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.