Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation
308K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
56.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 56.2%.
Measured over 308K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 308K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 308K
- Best context
- 59.8% at 1800-1999 Blitz
- Worst context
- 46.9% at 2500+ Blitz
- Average game length
- 34 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 96.7%
- Draws
- 3.3%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 48.8%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.9% expected score (494 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (548 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 43.6% expected score (163 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (2,061 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (1,587 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (421 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 38.3% expected score (7 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 55.2% expected score (105 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (6,264 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (3,676 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (863 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (19 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.5% expected score (419 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (12,381 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (7,253 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (1,605 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 39.8% expected score (57 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.4% expected score (405 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (20,378 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.6% expected score (18,343 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (3,214 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 49.6% expected score (120 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (198 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.2% expected score (33,441 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 59.8% expected score (39,063 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 59.2% expected score (5,055 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 69.2% expected score (160 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (85 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (40,247 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (42,556 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 58.5% expected score (3,656 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (114 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (41 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (40,305 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (13,896 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.7% expected score (901 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 47.6% expected score (19 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (7,243 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (647 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation scores 56.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.9% and 56.2% — from 308K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 308K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate?
Playing the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation, Black wins 54.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 42.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.0%. It rests on 308K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation perform best?
The Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 58.2% (78K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 57.6% in Blitz (128K games) against 56.4% in Rapid (16K games).
How sharp is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation?
The Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, Black wins 47.5%, draws 3.2% and loses 49.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, Black wins 49.7%, draws 1.9% and loses 48.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.7%. It rests on 4.1K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, Black wins 51.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 46.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.0% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 22K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, Black wins 55.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 42.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 42K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, Black wins 56.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 40.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.2%. It rests on 78K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, Black wins 55.7%, draws 3.6% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.5%. It rests on 87K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, Black wins 51.3%, draws 4.0% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.3%. It rests on 55K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, Black wins 47.1%, draws 4.9% and loses 48.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 7.9K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, Black wins 49.0%, draws 1.1% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 1.3K Lichess games.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, Black wins 53.5%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.8%. It rests on 163K Lichess games.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, Black wins 55.6%, draws 4.0% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.6%. It rests on 128K Lichess games.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, Black wins 54.1%, draws 4.5% and loses 41.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.4%. It rests on 16K Lichess games.
What is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, Black wins 50.9%, draws 8.5% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 497 Lichess games.
Is the Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation a good opening?
The Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 54.4% of its games and loses 42.4%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.