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Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit

11K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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4...Nxc4
Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

43.1%

35%55%
Floor42.3%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 43.9%.

Measured over 11K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 11K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
11K
Best context
46.2% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context
37.7% at 1200-1399 Blitz
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
97.0%
Draws
3.0%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: −12.9% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It holds about the same all the way up, near 58.0%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (246 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (179 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 43.6% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (688 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (356 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 43.1% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 22.8% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 42.4% expected score (18 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (1,119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 37.7% expected score (599 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 36.8% expected score (123 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 41.9% expected score (1,264 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.5% expected score (764 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 40.8% expected score (155 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (1,009 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 42.3% expected score (811 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 40.0% expected score (149 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 43.7% expected score (901 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.5% expected score (609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.3% expected score (77 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (564 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 46.8% expected score (282 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (21 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.8% expected score (276 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 34.6% expected score (89 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (30 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 68.2% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Mikenas Defense
51.6%
Variations (2)
Mikenas Defense: Lithuanian Variation
42.4%
Mikenas Defense: Cannstatter Variation
52.5%
Analyze Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit scores 43.1% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 42.3% and 43.9% — from 11K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
11K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate?

Playing the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit, Black wins 41.6%, draws 3.0% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.1%. It rests on 11K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit perform best?

The Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit performs best for Black at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 49.1% (499 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 41.5% in Blitz (3.7K games) against 41.7% in Rapid (690 games).

How sharp is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit?

The Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 47.7%, draws 2.9% and loses 49.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.1%. It rests on 499 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 42.8%, draws 2.2% and loses 55.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.9%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 40.7%, draws 2.3% and loses 57.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.9%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 39.7%, draws 3.0% and loses 57.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.2%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 41.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 55.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 2.0K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 41.9%, draws 3.4% and loses 54.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.6%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 43.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 52.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.7%. It rests on 870 Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 39.5%, draws 5.3% and loses 55.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 42.2%. It rests on 369 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 43.0%, draws 2.5% and loses 54.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 44.3%. It rests on 6.1K Lichess games.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 39.7%, draws 3.5% and loses 56.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.5%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.

What is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 39.6%, draws 4.1% and loses 56.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 41.7%. It rests on 690 Lichess games.

Is the Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit a good opening?

The Mikenas Defense: Pozarek Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 41.6% of its games and loses 55.4%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.