Montevideo Defense

1 variations · 80K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

2...Nb8

Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

46.8%

40%55%

Floor46.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 47.1%.

Measured over 80K games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the ranked list.

Outcomes for Black

45.0%3.5%51.5%

Win

Draw

Loss

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 80K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here: #52 of 62
Games in this context: 80K
Best context: 52.5% at 1000-1199 Bullet
Worst context: 40.7% at 1000-1199 Rapid
Variations measured: 1
Average game length: 35 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall

#1Montevideo DefenseBest here

1.d4 Nc6 2.d5 Nb8

Floor 46.5% · 80K games

46.8%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 45.4% at 0-999, 36.2% at 2500+.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499					—
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,273 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (2,490 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (1,141 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.5% expected score (12 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.5% expected score (2,448 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 43.8% expected score (3,857 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 40.7% expected score (1,318 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.7% expected score (40 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (32 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (4,074 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (5,846 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.9% expected score (1,645 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (119 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (94 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (5,324 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (7,158 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (1,988 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 33.1% expected score (93 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 34.2% expected score (84 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.6% expected score (5,676 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.5% expected score (6,964 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.5% expected score (1,386 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 27.7% expected score (68 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 39.1% expected score (67 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (6,114 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 44.7% expected score (5,022 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (885 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 38.9% expected score (30 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (48 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.0% expected score (4,082 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.1% expected score (3,587 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (473 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 38.6% expected score (16 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 36.9% expected score (44 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (2,980 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (2,246 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 45.5% expected score (110 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (1,013 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (360 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.6% expected score (17 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

1 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

Montevideo Defense80K games

Losing46.8%Floor 46.5%

Analyze Montevideo Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Montevideo Defense family scores 46.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.5% and 47.1% — from 80K Lichess games across 1 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made

Whose games these are: 80K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count: Rated games only — nothing casual.
Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
At least 2 moves played.
A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range: A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything: An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Montevideo Defense win rate?

Across the Montevideo Defense's 1 variations, Black wins 45.0%, draws 3.5% and loses 51.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.8%. It rests on 80K rated games from Lichess.

How many Montevideo Defense variations are there?

1 Montevideo Defense variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Montevideo Defense perform best?

The Montevideo Defense family performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 47.5% (8.2K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Montevideo Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Montevideo Defense scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 45.3% in Blitz (38K games) against 44.5% in Rapid (9.0K games).

How sharp is the Montevideo Defense?

Montevideo Defense games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 35 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Montevideo Defense a good opening family?

The Montevideo Defense family is hard work for Black — it favours White overall. Across its games, Black wins 45.0% and loses 51.5%. Results differ between its 1 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.