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King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit

86K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score44.3%Range (90% confident): 44.0% – 44.6%Based on 86K games
0%44.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 44.0% – 44.6%
Outcome Distribution
42.8%3.0%54.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.d4
King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit
Analyzen=86K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.0%

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 44.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 44.0% and 44.6%), based on 86K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: -5.4% · Breakpoint: 0-999

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 22.1% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~41%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 40.9% win rate (14,658 games)
  • 1000-1199: 41.0% win rate (12,885 games)
  • 1200-1399: 39.9% win rate (11,013 games)
  • 1400-1599: 39.7% win rate (10,338 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.2% win rate (11,045 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.6% win rate (15,232 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.2% win rate (8,326 games)
  • 2200-2499: 42.2% win rate (2,026 games)
  • 2500+: 40.1% win rate (137 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (32%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 53.8% win rate (1,234 games)
  • Bullet: 46.9% win rate (32,389 games)
  • Blitz: 41.3% win rate (36,791 games)
  • Rapid: 37.0% win rate (14,618 games)
  • Classical: 31.7% win rate (628 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (60 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (4,622 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 40.4% expected score (5,828 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 40.4% expected score (4,096 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 21.1% expected score (52 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (125 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (3,631 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 42.4% expected score (5,807 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.6% expected score (3,213 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 39.6% expected score (109 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (155 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 44.5% expected score (3,436 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 40.0% expected score (4,382 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 39.3% expected score (2,865 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 39.0% expected score (175 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 59.2% expected score (255 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.8% expected score (3,396 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 40.1% expected score (4,444 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 34.5% expected score (2,045 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 24.2% expected score (198 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (247 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.2% expected score (4,206 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 44.3% expected score (5,195 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (1,329 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.0% expected score (68 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 48.4% expected score (223 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (7,193 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (6,995 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 40.6% expected score (799 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 47.0% expected score (130 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (4,301 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (3,643 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.8% expected score (248 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 59.1% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 44.6% expected score (1,482 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 42.2% expected score (484 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (23 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 43.2% expected score (122 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Alapin Opening
48.3%
King's Pawn Game: Bavarian Gambit
49.5%
King's Pawn Game: Beyer Gambit
53.4%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit, Chiodini Gambit
47.3%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate?

The King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 42.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 86K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 46.6% win rate for white (15K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (53.8%) outperforms Classical (31.7%) by 22.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit?

The King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 40.9% (90% CI: 40.2%-41.6%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 41.0% (90% CI: 40.3%-41.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 39.9% (90% CI: 39.2%-40.7%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 39.7% (90% CI: 38.9%-40.5%) win rate for white, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 44.4%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.0%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 15K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 45.3%-47.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 42.2% (90% CI: 40.4%-44.1%) win rate for white, based on 2.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 40.1% (90% CI: 33.3%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 137 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.1%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.3%) win rate for white (32K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 41.3% (90% CI: 40.9%-41.7%) win rate for white (37K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 37.0% (90% CI: 36.4%-37.7%) win rate for white (15K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit has a 31.7% (90% CI: 28.7%-34.8%) win rate for white (628 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Schulze-Müller Gambit is slightly favors black with a 42.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-43.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.