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King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense

3.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

46.9%

40%55%
Floor46.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 3.4M games at this level and clock.

Tough Sellloses more often than it wins at this level

Black comes out behind here — there are better weapons in the list.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 4.8 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 3.4M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
3.4M
Best context
55.1% at 1000-1199 UltraBullet
Worst context
40.1% at 1600-1799 Classical
Average game length
35 moves
Games that end decisively
95.2%
Draws
4.8%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 50.1% at 0-999, 43.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.4% expected score (663 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (79,619 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (215,990 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (83,606 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 52.6% expected score (628 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.1% expected score (1,537 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.3% expected score (127,406 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.8% expected score (259,526 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (119,858 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 46.1% expected score (2,437 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.1% expected score (3,954 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (178,987 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (262,171 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (115,160 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.7% expected score (5,400 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (5,144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (218,983 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (250,077 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (84,352 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.6% expected score (5,975 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 44.6% expected score (3,903 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.6% expected score (229,377 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (222,588 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (57,500 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 40.1% expected score (2,902 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 47.5% expected score (1,168 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (216,790 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (193,595 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (34,330 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (993 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (448 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.2% expected score (153,000 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (96,251 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (15,374 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (303 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 49.3% expected score (212 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (80,017 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.1% expected score (29,359 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (2,585 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 36.7% expected score (51 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (14,241 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 43.2% expected score (1,570 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 33.6% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
King's Pawn Game
47.9%
Variations (5)
King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation
48.7%
King's Pawn Game: Wayward Queen Attack
51.8%
King's Pawn Game: Busch-Gass Gambit
50.9%
King's Pawn Game: McConnell Defense
50.0%
King's Pawn Game: Napoleon Attack
50.5%
Analyze King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense scores 46.9% for Black — we are 90% confident it is 46.9% — from 3.4M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
3.4M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate?

Playing the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense, Black wins 44.5%, draws 4.8% and loses 50.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.9%. It rests on 3.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense perform best?

The King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense performs best for Black at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 48.9% (265K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 46.4% in Blitz (1.5M games) against 45.0% in Rapid (513K games).

How sharp is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense?

The King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense has a sharpness score of 95.2 (very decisive), meaning 95.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 44.9%, draws 5.0% and loses 50.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 381K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 43.0%, draws 4.5% and loses 52.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.3%. It rests on 511K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 43.7%, draws 4.2% and loses 52.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.8%. It rests on 566K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 44.3%, draws 4.3% and loses 51.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.5%. It rests on 565K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 45.0%, draws 4.7% and loses 50.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.4%. It rests on 516K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.4% and loses 48.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.6%. It rests on 447K Lichess games, which average 37 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 45.9%, draws 5.9% and loses 48.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.9%. It rests on 265K Lichess games, which average 38 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 44.0%, draws 6.6% and loses 49.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 112K Lichess games, which average 39 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 43.4%, draws 7.8% and loses 48.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 47.3%. It rests on 16K Lichess games, which average 42 moves.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 48.8%, draws 1.5% and loses 49.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.6%. It rests on 17K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 46.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 49.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 48.4%. It rests on 1.3M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 43.6%, draws 5.5% and loses 50.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 46.4%. It rests on 1.5M Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 42.1%, draws 5.7% and loses 52.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 45.0%. It rests on 513K Lichess games.

What is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 40.1%, draws 5.8% and loses 54.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 43.0%. It rests on 19K Lichess games.

Is the King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense a good opening?

The King's Pawn Game: Maróczy Defense is hard work for Black — it favours White. Across all ratings, Black wins 44.5% of its games and loses 50.7%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.