15M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 50.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.7% and 50.7%), based on 15M Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~46%)
Best in UltraBullet (52%), worst in Classical (43%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 15M rated games from Lichess.
The King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 49.3% win rate for white (3.2M games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
UltraBullet (52.0%) outperforms Classical (42.8%) by 9.2%. Choose your time control wisely.
The King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3M Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.5M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 49.2% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.7M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 495K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.6%-48.1%) win rate for white, based on 138K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.1%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 11.3% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.3%) win rate for white (75K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.
In Bullet games, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-49.9%) win rate for white (5.4M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Blitz games, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.5%) win rate for white (7.6M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.
In Rapid games, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.7%) win rate for white (2.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.
In Classical games, the King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation has a 42.8% (90% CI: 42.5%-43.1%) win rate for white (80K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.
The King's Pawn Game: Leonardis Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.