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Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation

897 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score44.7%Range (90% confident): 42.0% – 47.5%Based on 897 games
0%44.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 42.0% – 47.5%
Outcome Distribution
42.9%3.6%53.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
10.Nfd2
Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation
Analyzen=897
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 44.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 42.0% and 47.5%), based on 897 Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +1.2% · Breakpoint: 1400-1599

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.4% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 55%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.7% win rate (22 games)
  • 1200-1399: 28.3% win rate (25 games)
  • 1400-1599: 30.6% win rate (72 games)
  • 1600-1799: 31.8% win rate (85 games)
  • 1800-1999: 37.7% win rate (98 games)
  • 2000-2199: 35.7% win rate (179 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.6% win rate (300 games)
  • 2500+: 54.5% win rate (115 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (18%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 46.1% win rate (221 games)
  • Blitz: 44.4% win rate (558 games)
  • Rapid: 30.7% win rate (111 games)
  • Classical: 17.6% win rate (7 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999——
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 67.4% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 26.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 21.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 32.9% expected score (16 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 34.5% expected score (37 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 27.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 37.1% expected score (14 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 36.5% expected score (43 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 34.3% expected score (24 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 13.7% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 43.6% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 28.5% expected score (24 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 32.8% expected score (45 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 38.3% expected score (114 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.6% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (221 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 33.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (60 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 66.8% expected score (55 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Italian Game
55.0%
Variations (5)
Italian Game: Anti-Fried Liver Defense
51.3%
Italian Game: Bird's Attack
47.2%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kostić Gambit
46.9%
Italian Game: Blackburne-Kosti�� Gambit
44.3%
Italian Game: Classical Variation
51.6%
Analyze Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 42.9% (90% CI: 40.2%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 897 rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation perform best?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 54.5% win rate for white (115 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (44.4%) outperforms Rapid (30.7%) by 13.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 35.7% (90% CI: 30.0%-41.7%) win rate for white, based on 179 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 300 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 46.9%-62.0%) win rate for white, based on 115 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 46.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-51.6%) win rate for white (221 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 44.4% (90% CI: 41.0%-47.9%) win rate for white (558 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation has a 30.7% (90% CI: 23.7%-38.0%) win rate for white (111 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation a good opening?

The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation is slightly favors black with a 42.9% (90% CI: 40.2%-45.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.