Source Lichess
White isn't shown winning more often than losing at this level
how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident
At All Ratings, Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation keeps White's wins running −16.0% ahead of its losses at worst, 90% confident, from 897 Lichess games. The games don't show this gambit paying at this level. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
| Rating | Edge at worst | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1400-1599 | −52.7% | 30.6% | 3.4% | 66.0% | 72 |
| 1600-1799 | −48.6% | 31.8% | 4.0% | 64.2% | 85 |
| 1800-1999 | −37.8% | 37.7% | 2.5% | 59.8% | 98 |
| 2000-2199 | −37.6% | 35.7% | 2.5% | 61.8% | 179 |
| 2200-2499 | −2.2% | 51.6% | 4.1% | 44.3% | 300 |
| 2500+ | +1.2% | 54.5% | 7.3% | 38.2% | 115 |
At some ratings. White comes out ahead at 2500+; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
White wins 42.9% of Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation games, draws 3.6% and loses 53.5%. That rests on 897 games from Lichess.
2500+. There White wins at least 1.2 more of every 100 games than it loses (90% confident), its highest Edge at worst.
Blitz. For White, the Edge at worst — how far wins run ahead of losses, 90% confident — is −14.2% in Blitz (558 games) and −48.0% in Rapid (111 games). In neither do the games show White winning more than losing.
Yes. The first rating where the games do not show White coming out ahead is 2500+ in Bullet and 1800-1999 in Blitz.
The Italian Game: Two Knights Defense, Polerio Defense, Yankovich Variation is extremely sharp: 3.6% of its games are drawn, so 96.4% end with a winner.
At 2500+, where White comes out ahead. At the other ratings we can see, the games do not show it paying. Where it pays changes with the clock, so set yours above and look again.
As Black, take the material, then develop fast, castle early, and trade pieces. Give the material back when doing so kills the attack. At 2500+, White still comes out ahead in these games; at the other ratings we can see, the games do not show the gambit paying.
This rests on 897 games from Lichess. Every figure carries the range it is in, 90% confident, and the table above shows how many games sit behind each rating and each clock — the fewer there are, the wider that range.