Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack
450K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
55.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 55.4%.
Measured over 450K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 2.9 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 450K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 450K
- Best context
- 57.8% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Worst context
- 50.8% at 0-999 Rapid
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.1%
- Draws
- 2.9%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 49.2% at 0-999, 59.0% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.9% expected score (26 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 54.0% expected score (3,286 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (6,426 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (1,011 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 29.0% expected score (8 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (206 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (8,419 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (18,051 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (2,982 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (38 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (159 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (15,607 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (35,907 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (7,257 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.6% expected score (144 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (168 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (25,238 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (58,617 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (11,661 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (444 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (150 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (32,947 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (72,463 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.6% expected score (14,379 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (259 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 75.8% expected score (14 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 56.3% expected score (27,890 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (49,266 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12,759 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.4% expected score (288 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (11,839 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (16,593 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (4,864 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 57.5% expected score (39 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (7,672 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.8% expected score (2,061 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (242 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (767 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (152 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.1% expected score (5 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack scores 55.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 55.2% and 55.4% — from 450K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 450K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate?
Playing the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack, White wins 53.8%, draws 2.9% and loses 43.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.3%. It rests on 450K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack perform best?
The Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack performs best for White at 2000-2199, with an Expected Score of 56.3% (33K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 55.2% in Blitz (260K games) against 53.7% in Rapid (55K games).
How sharp is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack?
The Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack has a sharpness score of 97.1 (very decisive), meaning 97.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 50.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 53.4%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.7%. It rests on 30K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 53.8%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.1%. It rests on 59K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 53.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 43.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 96K Lichess games, which average 29 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 54.0%, draws 2.8% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.4%. It rests on 120K Lichess games, which average 31 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 54.0%, draws 3.1% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.6%. It rests on 90K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 54.5%, draws 3.6% and loses 41.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 33K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 55.0%, draws 3.3% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.7%. It rests on 10.0K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 50.9%, draws 5.1% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 924 Lichess games, which average 37 moves.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet, White wins 57.0%, draws 1.3% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.7%. It rests on 726 Lichess games.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 55.2%, draws 1.9% and loses 42.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 134K Lichess games.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 53.6%, draws 3.2% and loses 43.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.2%. It rests on 260K Lichess games.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 51.9%, draws 3.5% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 55K Lichess games.
What is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 50.9%, draws 4.1% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games.
Is the Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack a good opening?
The Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 53.8% of its games and loses 43.3%. It performs best at 2000-2199. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.