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Analyzer

Grob Opening: Keene Defense

79K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Grob Opening: Keene Defense is balanced for Black at 49.6% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Playable
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.6%Based on 79K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
45%49.6%55%
Range (90% confident): 49.3% – 49.9%
Min adv-1.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=79K
Outcome Distribution
3...c6
Grob Opening: Keene Defense
Analyzen=79K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 49.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 49.3% and 49.9%), based on 79K Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 49% → 44%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.5% win rate (1,591 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.5% win rate (3,070 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.4% win rate (5,537 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.1% win rate (8,347 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.0% win rate (13,849 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (22,398 games)
  • 2000-2199: 46.4% win rate (13,026 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.2% win rate (9,746 games)
  • 2500+: 43.5% win rate (994 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (50%), worst in Bullet (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 50.1% win rate (197 games)
  • Bullet: 46.1% win rate (31,250 games)
  • Blitz: 48.7% win rate (40,657 games)
  • Rapid: 49.3% win rate (6,297 games)
  • Classical: 50.2% win rate (157 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (332 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,001 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (257 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 47.4% expected score (1,071 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (1,612 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (376 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 47.7% expected score (2,471 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (2,508 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (525 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (25 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (95 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (3,104 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (4,323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (784 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 60.6% expected score (41 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.2% expected score (84 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (5,242 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (7,513 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 49.3% expected score (972 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.5% expected score (38 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (7,408 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (13,470 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.1% expected score (1,474 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.4% expected score (39 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.6% expected score (4,097 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (7,371 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.6% expected score (1,553 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (5 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.6% expected score (6,666 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 45.2% expected score (2,730 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (350 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (859 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (129 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 56.7% expected score (6 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grob Opening
48.4%
Variations (5)
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit
49.8%
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit, Fritz Gambit
58.0%
Grob Opening: Spike, Hurst Attack
53.8%
Grob Opening: Grob Gambit Declined
49.8%
Grob Opening: Spike Attack
49.2%
Continuations (1)
Grob Opening: Keene Defense, Main Line
46.0%
Analyze Grob Opening: Keene Defense PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate?

The Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 79K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grob Opening: Keene Defense perform best?

The Grob Opening: Keene Defense performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 51.9% win rate for white (9.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.1%) outperforms Classical (45.1%) by 6.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense?

The Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 45.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 49.6% (90% CI: 48.1%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.0%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 48.4% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.2%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.4%-47.5%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 9.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 50.2% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.8%) win rate for white, based on 994 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 48.1% (90% CI: 42.3%-53.9%) win rate for white (197 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.6%) win rate for white (31K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.6%-47.4%) win rate for white (41K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 45.6% (90% CI: 44.6%-46.7%) win rate for white (6.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grob Opening: Keene Defense has a 45.1% (90% CI: 38.7%-51.6%) win rate for white (157 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

Is the Grob Opening: Keene Defense a good opening?

The Grob Opening: Keene Defense is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.