TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation

386K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.4%Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.5%Based on 386K games
0%50.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.2% – 50.5%
Outcome Distribution
47.7%5.3%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.e3
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation
Analyzen=386K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 50.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.2% and 50.5%), based on 386K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.5% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 46% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.7% win rate (2,344 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.7% win rate (9,094 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.8% win rate (22,059 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.3% win rate (45,612 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.7% win rate (79,766 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.3% win rate (101,851 games)
  • 2000-2199: 47.0% win rate (78,795 games)
  • 2200-2499: 47.9% win rate (39,573 games)
  • 2500+: 51.2% win rate (6,618 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (54%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.2% win rate (525 games)
  • Bullet: 48.7% win rate (150,022 games)
  • Blitz: 47.1% win rate (191,498 games)
  • Rapid: 46.7% win rate (41,919 games)
  • Classical: 42.7% win rate (1,748 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (891 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (1,212 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (229 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (3,713 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (4,428 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.9% expected score (935 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 68.5% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (8,637 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (10,715 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.5% expected score (2,611 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (57 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (117 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (16,286 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (23,529 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.3% expected score (5,476 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.8% expected score (204 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (169 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.6% expected score (26,167 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.8% expected score (43,449 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (9,423 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (558 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (108 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (33,072 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.1% expected score (54,930 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13,083 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.1% expected score (658 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.8% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (31,557 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (38,634 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.4% expected score (8,313 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (237 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 46.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (24,075 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (13,663 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.6% expected score (1,797 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (5,624 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (938 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.1% expected score (52 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 40.9% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Grünfeld Defense
45.8%
Variations (5)
Grünfeld Defense: Botvinnik Variation
47.7%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack
49.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit
45.9%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit Accepted
51.6%
Grünfeld Defense: Brinckmann Attack, Grünfeld Gambit, Botvinnik Variation
45.0%
Continuations (1)
Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation, Reversed Tarrasch
45.8%
Analyze Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 386K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation perform best?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 51.2% win rate for white (6.6K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (54.2%) outperforms Classical (42.7%) by 11.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 44.0%-47.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.2%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.9%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 46K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 80K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 47.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-47.6%) win rate for white, based on 102K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.6% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 46.7%-47.3%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.3% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-48.3%) win rate for white, based on 40K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.1% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 8.0% draw rate.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 54.2% (90% CI: 50.6%-57.8%) win rate for white (525 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 48.7% (90% CI: 48.5%-48.9%) win rate for white (150K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.9%-47.3%) win rate for white (191K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.1%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.0%.

What is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation has a 42.7% (90% CI: 40.8%-44.7%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.1%.

Is the Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation a good opening?

The Grünfeld Defense: Three Knights Variation, Burille Variation is statistically balanced with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.5%-47.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.