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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation

35K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.9%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.3%Based on 35K games
0%50.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.8%4.2%47.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5...Ba5
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation
Analyzen=35K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 50.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.3%), based on 35K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 57% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 57.0% win rate (52 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.4% win rate (166 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.7% win rate (526 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.4% win rate (1,591 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.9% win rate (4,076 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (8,632 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.5% win rate (11,301 games)
  • 2200-2499: 48.1% win rate (7,011 games)
  • 2500+: 51.4% win rate (1,544 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in Bullet (48%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 47.9% win rate (8,323 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (21,961 games)
  • Rapid: 51.3% win rate (4,346 games)
  • Classical: 54.9% win rate (269 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 60.9% expected score (26 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 41.8% expected score (71 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.6% expected score (56 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 64.8% expected score (39 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (172 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (265 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 61.6% expected score (85 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (377 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (924 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 56.5% expected score (277 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (782 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (2,581 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (674 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.7% expected score (39 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.5% expected score (1,427 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (5,662 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,437 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 51.0% expected score (106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 47.8% expected score (2,125 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (7,668 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (1,411 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 65.8% expected score (97 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (2,224 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (4,377 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (401 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (1,130 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 59.7% expected score (402 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Continuations (1)
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation, Armenian Line
44.0%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 35K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (526 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (51.3%) outperforms Bullet (47.9%) by 3.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.1%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 166 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 526 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 48.5%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 8.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.7%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.1%-49.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 49.3%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 47.9% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.8%) win rate for white (8.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.0%-49.1%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.1%-52.6%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.7%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-59.8%) win rate for white (269 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Retreat Variation is statistically balanced with a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.