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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation

66K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.6%Range (90% confident): 54.3% – 55.0%Based on 66K games
0%54.6%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.3% – 55.0%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%5.4%42.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Bd2
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation
Analyzen=66K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 54.6% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.3% and 55.0%), based on 66K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 54%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.3% win rate (95 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.3% win rate (248 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.4% win rate (636 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.8% win rate (1,410 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (3,652 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.8% win rate (9,869 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.3% win rate (19,534 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.0% win rate (23,937 games)
  • 2500+: 53.9% win rate (6,168 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Blitz (52%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 52.2% win rate (21,053 games)
  • Blitz: 51.6% win rate (40,466 games)
  • Rapid: 52.5% win rate (3,839 games)
  • Classical: 53.8% win rate (189 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.3% expected score (28 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (50 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.8% expected score (17 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.7% expected score (76 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (131 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (41 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (177 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (337 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (119 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (396 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.6% expected score (756 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.4% expected score (238 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 52.5% expected score (19 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (1,283 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.9% expected score (1,920 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.7% expected score (417 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.5% expected score (32 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (2,483 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.4% expected score (6,425 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (894 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 60.2% expected score (67 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.6% expected score (4,459 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (13,861 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.2% expected score (1,160 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 63.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (7,854 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (15,166 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.9% expected score (903 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (4,297 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (1,820 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 58.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Continuations (1)
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation, Icelandic Defense
53.5%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 66K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.9% win rate for white (6.2K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (52.2%) outperforms Classical (53.8%) by -1.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 52.3% (90% CI: 47.1%-57.5%) win rate for white, based on 248 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 47.2%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 636 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.9%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 6.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 53.9% (90% CI: 52.9%-55.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 7.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.8%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.0%) win rate for white (40K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.1%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.8%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 47.9%-59.7%) win rate for white (189 Lichess games). Draw rate is 10.2%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubow Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.