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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation

3.1K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.9%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 57.4%Based on 3.1K games
0%55.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 57.4%
Outcome Distribution
53.2%5.4%41.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation
n=3.1K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 55.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 57.4%), based on 3.1K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 13.9% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 20% → 51%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 20.0% win rate (1 games)
  • 1000-1199: 36.0% win rate (11 games)
  • 1200-1399: 38.8% win rate (23 games)
  • 1400-1599: 55.4% win rate (59 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.4% win rate (143 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.5% win rate (508 games)
  • 2000-2199: 53.7% win rate (921 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.7% win rate (1,127 games)
  • 2500+: 50.9% win rate (259 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (64%), worst in Rapid (40%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 54.0% win rate (999 games)
  • Blitz: 53.8% win rate (1,897 games)
  • Rapid: 40.1% win rate (152 games)
  • Classical: 63.6% win rate (4 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999————
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599——
1600-1799——
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (8 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 59.1% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 39.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 68.1% expected score (29 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 35.2% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (57 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 51.5% expected score (69 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 36.5% expected score (17 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 59.5% expected score (109 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.8% expected score (357 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.4% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.7% expected score (229 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.0% expected score (642 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 35.9% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 57.6% expected score (413 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.2% expected score (687 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.1% expected score (27 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (168 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.3% expected score (87 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 54.7% win rate for white (1.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.8%) outperforms Rapid (40.1%) by 13.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 47.4% (90% CI: 40.6%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 48.9%-56.1%) win rate for white, based on 508 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 921 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 54.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-57.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 45.8%-55.9%) win rate for white, based on 259 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 10.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 51.4%-56.6%) win rate for white (999 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 53.8% (90% CI: 51.9%-55.7%) win rate for white (1.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation has a 40.1% (90% CI: 33.7%-46.6%) win rate for white (152 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Bogoljubov Variation is statistically favors white with a 53.2% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.