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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit

77K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.9%Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 54.2%Based on 77K games
0%53.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 54.2%
Outcome Distribution
51.0%5.8%43.3%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Ne2
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit
Analyzen=77K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate5.8%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 53.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 54.2%), based on 77K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +10.1% · Breakpoint: Never

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.1% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.7% win rate (535 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.8% win rate (1,492 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.4% win rate (3,173 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.0% win rate (4,631 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.9% win rate (6,039 games)
  • 1800-1999: 53.0% win rate (9,881 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.9% win rate (17,968 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.9% win rate (26,632 games)
  • 2500+: 52.1% win rate (7,044 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (44%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (11 games)
  • Bullet: 51.8% win rate (21,409 games)
  • Blitz: 50.6% win rate (48,647 games)
  • Rapid: 51.2% win rate (7,040 games)
  • Classical: 43.7% win rate (288 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.3% expected score (101 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (311 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (118 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (279 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (839 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (367 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 8.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (501 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (1,696 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (961 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (702 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,549 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (1,325 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 34.1% expected score (55 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (1,560 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.3% expected score (3,094 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.7% expected score (1,310 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.0% expected score (74 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.4% expected score (2,559 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (6,210 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (1,041 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.3% expected score (65 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (4,333 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (12,613 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (984 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 47.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (7,147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (18,571 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (882 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (4,227 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.0% expected score (2,764 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.5% expected score (52 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate for white, based on 77K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 53.0% win rate for white (9.9K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.8%) outperforms Classical (43.7%) by 8.1%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a sharpness score of 94.2 (decisive), meaning 94.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 535 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 52.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 50.4% (90% CI: 48.9%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 3.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 50.0% (90% CI: 48.8%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 4.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 51.9% (90% CI: 50.9%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 6.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 53.0% (90% CI: 52.2%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 9.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.4%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.2%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.4%) win rate for white (21K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.0%) win rate for white (49K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.5%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 51.2% (90% CI: 50.3%-52.2%) win rate for white (7.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit has a 43.7% (90% CI: 38.9%-48.5%) win rate for white (288 Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Alekhine-Maróczy Gambit is statistically favors white with a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.