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French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation

492K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.5%Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.6%Based on 492K games
0%52.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.3% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
50.3%4.3%45.4%
Win
Draw
Loss
6...Ne7
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation
Analyzen=492K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.3%

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.3% and 52.6%), based on 492K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~52%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.0% win rate (6,230 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.0% win rate (11,705 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.5% win rate (21,571 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.9% win rate (41,447 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.9% win rate (71,461 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.1% win rate (108,505 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.1% win rate (111,954 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.3% win rate (97,095 games)
  • 2500+: 52.0% win rate (22,244 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (53%), worst in Blitz (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.4% win rate (377 games)
  • Bullet: 50.7% win rate (122,879 games)
  • Blitz: 49.7% win rate (295,254 games)
  • Rapid: 52.0% win rate (70,193 games)
  • Classical: 53.1% win rate (3,509 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (1,076 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (3,564 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.8% expected score (1,579 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 66.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (2,363 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (6,259 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 58.0% expected score (3,036 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (44 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 46.8% expected score (30 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (4,676 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (11,508 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 56.8% expected score (5,170 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (187 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 55.6% expected score (123 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (8,794 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (23,162 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 54.7% expected score (8,885 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (483 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (115 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (14,310 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (41,304 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (14,726 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (1,006 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 52.4% expected score (61 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (21,215 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (66,952 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (19,049 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (1,228 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 69.6% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (25,592 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (73,285 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (12,603 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.6% expected score (455 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (17 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (31,459 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (60,638 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.3% expected score (4,899 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 51.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (13,394 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.9% expected score (8,582 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.6% expected score (246 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 63.8% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Continuations (1)
French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation, Moscow Variation
52.1%
Analyze French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 492K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation performs best at 1000-1199 Elo with a 54.0% win rate for white (12K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (52.0%) outperforms UltraBullet (52.4%) by -0.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 95.7 (very decisive), meaning 95.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.0%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 54.0% (90% CI: 53.2%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 12K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.5%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 41K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 71K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 109K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.9%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 112K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 97K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 22K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 52.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-56.7%) win rate for white (377 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 50.7% (90% CI: 50.4%-50.9%) win rate for white (123K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.0%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 49.5%-49.8%) win rate for white (295K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 52.0% (90% CI: 51.7%-52.3%) win rate for white (70K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation has a 53.1% (90% CI: 51.7%-54.4%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.9%.

Is the French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Winawer Variation, Advance Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.2%-50.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1000-1199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.