620 games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a 51.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.4% and 55.0%), based on 620 Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Declines with rating: 73% → 55%
Best in Rapid (57%), worst in UltraBullet (20%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | — | |||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 620 rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 58.8% win rate for white (132 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (55.1%) outperforms Blitz (40.3%) by 14.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.3 (very decisive), meaning 95.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a 45.2% (90% CI: 38.8%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 159 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 42.7%-56.3%) win rate for white, based on 143 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a 58.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-65.7%) win rate for white, based on 132 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a 55.1% (90% CI: 50.4%-59.9%) win rate for white (295 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.9%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit has a 40.3% (90% CI: 35.3%-45.4%) win rate for white (253 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.
The French Defense: Tarrasch Variation, Open System, Shaposhnikov Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.3% (90% CI: 46.0%-52.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.