French Defense: Normal Variation

10M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score52.1%Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.1%Based on 10M games

0%52.1%100%

Range (90% confident): 52.1% – 52.1%

Outcome Distribution

50.3%3.5%46.2%

Win

Draw

Loss

2.d4

French Defense: Normal Variation

Analyzen=10M

Avg Length34 moves

Sharpness97%

Draw Rate3.5%

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 52.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.1% and 52.1%), based on 10M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.3% · Classical best · UltraBullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 50% → 54%

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (55%), worst in UltraBullet (47%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 37.4% expected score (1,114 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (103,463 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (297,068 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (147,560 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 54.1% expected score (1,624 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (2,959 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (188,646 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (479,116 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 55.0% expected score (192,030 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 57.0% expected score (5,841 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.1% expected score (7,117 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (328,796 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (766,975 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (279,233 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 56.9% expected score (13,024 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 44.8% expected score (16,378 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (480,756 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.8% expected score (1,068,818 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.3% expected score (354,753 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (21,975 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 47.9% expected score (20,262 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.9% expected score (634,657 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (1,209,828 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.2% expected score (359,132 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (14,598 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.4% expected score (9,056 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (697,500 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (973,174 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.8% expected score (243,767 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.8% expected score (6,278 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.1% expected score (3,190 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.0% expected score (544,147 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.2% expected score (381,145 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.2% expected score (69,614 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 67.3% expected score (725 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (1,004 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (298,079 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.7% expected score (67,521 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (6,614 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 55.0% expected score (89 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (15 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (46,120 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 58.5% expected score (2,818 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 61.3% expected score (171 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 82.9% expected score (38 games)

Related Openings

Parent

French Defense

45.7%

Variations (5)

French Defense: Advance Variation

48.0%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation

46.1%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap

48.6%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit

46.5%

French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation

48.8%

Analyze French Defense: Normal Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.3%) win rate for white, based on 10M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Normal Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Normal Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.7% win rate for white (49K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Normal Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (54.9%) outperforms UltraBullet (46.6%) by 8.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Normal Variation?

The French Defense: Normal Variation has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 551K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.9%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 869K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.4M Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 49.9%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 49.8%-49.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.2M Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.1% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.9M Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 50.7%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 999K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 52.0%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 373K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 53.7% (90% CI: 53.3%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.9%) win rate for white (61K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.5%.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 49.3% (90% CI: 49.2%-49.3%) win rate for white (3.3M Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 50.5%-50.5%) win rate for white (5.2M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.6%-51.7%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Normal Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 54.5%-55.2%) win rate for white (64K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the French Defense: Normal Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Normal Variation is statistically favors white with a 50.3% (90% CI: 50.3%-50.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.

What is the French Defense: Normal Variation expected score for White?