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French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation

1.9K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.4%Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 54.3%Based on 1.9K games
0%52.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.6% – 54.3%
Outcome Distribution
49.7%5.4%44.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.exd5
French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation
Analyzen=1.9K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.4%

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 52.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.6% and 54.3%), based on 1.9K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.2% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~45%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.7% win rate (22 games)
  • 1000-1199: 55.3% win rate (41 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.4% win rate (63 games)
  • 1400-1599: 50.2% win rate (119 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.4% win rate (180 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.1% win rate (324 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (519 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.7% win rate (551 games)
  • 2500+: 44.9% win rate (102 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Rapid (42%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 51.3% win rate (573 games)
  • Blitz: 49.9% win rate (1,181 games)
  • Rapid: 42.1% win rate (159 games)
  • Classical: 52.9% win rate (7 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399——
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 32.6% expected score (10 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 68.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 67.1% expected score (19 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 14.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 70.0% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 26.2% expected score (9 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 61.8% expected score (24 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.3% expected score (75 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 44.9% expected score (18 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (106 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (81 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 51.9% expected score (208 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 38.4% expected score (33 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (123 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (367 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (199 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (331 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 64.0% expected score (20 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (65 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.7% expected score (33 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (4 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate?

The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation perform best?

The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (519 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (51.3%) outperforms Rapid (42.1%) by 9.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation?

The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a sharpness score of 94.6 (decisive), meaning 94.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 42.7%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-56.5%) win rate for white, based on 180 Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 43.5%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 324 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-54.2%) win rate for white, based on 519 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 46.2%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 551 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 44.9% (90% CI: 37.0%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 102 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 47.8%-54.7%) win rate for white (573 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 49.9% (90% CI: 47.5%-52.2%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

What is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation has a 42.1% (90% CI: 35.7%-48.5%) win rate for white (159 Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.2%.

Is the French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: McCutcheon Variation, Exchange Variation is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.8%-51.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.