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French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation

13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.3%Range (90% confident): 56.6% – 58.0%Based on 13K games
0%57.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 56.6% – 58.0%
Outcome Distribution
55.0%4.4%40.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
No position data
French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation
n=13K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 57.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.6% and 58.0%), based on 13K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 15.6% · Classical best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 68% → 56%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 67.6% win rate (199 games)
  • 1000-1199: 64.6% win rate (563 games)
  • 1200-1399: 63.4% win rate (1,226 games)
  • 1400-1599: 62.3% win rate (1,627 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.8% win rate (1,752 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (2,383 games)
  • 2000-2199: 49.7% win rate (3,101 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.6% win rate (1,867 games)
  • 2500+: 55.9% win rate (300 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (68%), worst in UltraBullet (40%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 39.6% win rate (25 games)
  • Bullet: 52.5% win rate (3,460 games)
  • Blitz: 54.5% win rate (7,265 games)
  • Rapid: 60.3% win rate (2,166 games)
  • Classical: 68.1% win rate (102 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 74.1% expected score (92 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 68.1% expected score (76 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (100 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 69.1% expected score (320 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (140 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (225 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (673 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.4% expected score (323 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (240 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (885 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.6% expected score (464 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (26 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (397 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (875 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (433 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (40 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (505 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,516 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (340 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 74.4% expected score (19 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (825 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,972 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (295 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (876 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (896 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (93 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (262 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 71.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 13K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation perform best?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 67.6% win rate for white (199 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (68.1%) outperforms Bullet (52.5%) by 15.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 67.6% (90% CI: 62.1%-72.9%) win rate for white, based on 199 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 64.6% (90% CI: 61.2%-67.8%) win rate for white, based on 563 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 63.4% (90% CI: 61.1%-65.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 62.3% (90% CI: 60.3%-64.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 56.8% (90% CI: 54.9%-58.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.0%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.2%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.7%-53.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 51.2%-60.6%) win rate for white, based on 300 Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.1%-53.9%) win rate for white (3.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.3%.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 54.5% (90% CI: 53.6%-55.5%) win rate for white (7.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 60.3% (90% CI: 58.6%-62.0%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.

What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a 68.1% (90% CI: 60.4%-75.4%) win rate for white (102 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.4%.

Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation is statistically favors white with a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 0-999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.