French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation
13K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
White expected score · All ratings · All speeds
57.3%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 58.0%.
Measured over 13K games at this level and clock.
A strong choice for White at this level and clock.
Outcomes for White
Draw 4.4 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 13K games
- Rank among the families White can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 13K
- Best context
- 63.4% at 1200-1399 Blitz
- Worst context
- 49.5% at 2000-2199 Bullet
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.6%
- Draws
- 4.4%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · White score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 67.2% at 0-999, 59.8% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 74.1% expected score (92 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 68.1% expected score (76 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 61.4% expected score (100 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 69.1% expected score (320 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.4% expected score (140 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 83.4% expected score (3 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 61.7% expected score (225 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (673 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 70.4% expected score (323 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (240 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 63.4% expected score (885 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 67.6% expected score (464 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 71.8% expected score (26 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 20.6% expected score (7 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (397 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 58.9% expected score (875 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 61.7% expected score (433 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 62.1% expected score (40 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.8% expected score (505 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (1,516 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.3% expected score (340 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 74.4% expected score (19 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (825 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (1,972 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (295 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (6 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (876 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (896 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.1% expected score (93 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (262 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 71.4% expected score (36 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation scores 57.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.6% and 58.0% — from 13K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 13K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate?
Playing the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation, White wins 55.0%, draws 4.4% and loses 40.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 13K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation perform best?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation performs best for White at 0-999, with an Expected Score of 69.5% (199 games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.
Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation better in blitz or rapid?
For White, the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation scores higher in Rapid: an Expected Score of 57.1% in Blitz (7.3K games) against 62.5% in Rapid (2.2K games).
How sharp is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, White wins 67.6%, draws 3.7% and loses 28.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 69.5%. It rests on 199 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, White wins 64.6%, draws 3.5% and loses 32.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 66.3%. It rests on 563 Lichess games, which average 27 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, White wins 63.4%, draws 3.1% and loses 33.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.0%. It rests on 1.2K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, White wins 62.3%, draws 2.9% and loses 34.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.8%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, White wins 56.8%, draws 4.2% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.9%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, White wins 50.6%, draws 4.9% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.1%. It rests on 2.4K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, White wins 49.7%, draws 4.7% and loses 45.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.0%. It rests on 3.1K Lichess games, which average 34 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, White wins 51.6%, draws 6.0% and loses 42.5%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.6%. It rests on 1.9K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, White wins 55.9%, draws 7.5% and loses 36.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.6%. It rests on 300 Lichess games, which average 36 moves.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet, White wins 52.5%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.2%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz, White wins 54.5%, draws 5.1% and loses 40.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.1%. It rests on 7.3K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid, White wins 60.3%, draws 4.4% and loses 35.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.5%. It rests on 2.2K Lichess games.
What is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation win rate in Classical?
In Classical, White wins 68.1%, draws 1.4% and loses 30.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 68.9%. It rests on 102 Lichess games.
Is the French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation a good opening?
The French Defense: MacCutcheon Variation, Advance Variation is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.0% of its games and loses 40.5%. It performs best at 0-999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.