110K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 53.8% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 54.0%), based on 110K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 51% → 56%
Best in Classical (59%), worst in UltraBullet (48%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 110K rated games from Lichess.
The French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 55.9% win rate for white (4.1K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Classical (59.2%) outperforms UltraBullet (48.4%) by 10.8%. Choose your time control wisely.
The French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.
At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.3%-51.7%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.
At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 52.6% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 53.4% (90% CI: 52.7%-54.1%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.8%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.9%-51.2%) win rate for white, based on 18K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.1%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 52.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 13K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.6%-57.1%) win rate for white, based on 4.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 56.3% (90% CI: 52.8%-59.9%) win rate for white, based on 523 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 48.4% (90% CI: 45.7%-51.2%) win rate for white (873 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.7%.
In Bullet games, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 51.4% (90% CI: 51.0%-51.8%) win rate for white (42K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.
In Blitz games, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 51.9%-52.6%) win rate for white (50K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
In Rapid games, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.6%-53.9%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.
In Classical games, the French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit has a 59.2% (90% CI: 56.1%-62.3%) win rate for white (678 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
The French Defense: Franco-Hiva Gambit is statistically favors white with a 52.1% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.