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French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation

20K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score59.3%Range (90% confident): 58.8% – 59.9%Based on 20K games
0%59.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 58.8% – 59.9%
Outcome Distribution
57.1%4.4%38.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
7.Nb5
French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation
Analyzen=20K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.4%

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 59.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 58.8% and 59.9%), based on 20K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 10.9% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 52% → 59%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 51.7% win rate (13 games)
  • 1000-1199: 59.0% win rate (40 games)
  • 1200-1399: 53.3% win rate (187 games)
  • 1400-1599: 57.5% win rate (587 games)
  • 1600-1799: 54.1% win rate (1,784 games)
  • 1800-1999: 57.3% win rate (5,501 games)
  • 2000-2199: 57.2% win rate (6,899 games)
  • 2200-2499: 57.6% win rate (3,746 games)
  • 2500+: 58.6% win rate (1,486 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (71%), worst in Classical (49%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 71.4% win rate (2 games)
  • Bullet: 60.3% win rate (7,896 games)
  • Blitz: 55.1% win rate (10,491 games)
  • Rapid: 54.9% win rate (1,737 games)
  • Classical: 49.4% win rate (117 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 64.6% expected score (26 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 59.6% expected score (9 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (50 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (34 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (134 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 60.3% expected score (340 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (107 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 10.0% expected score (6 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (518 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (989 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 60.3% expected score (257 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 63.0% expected score (2,003 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (2,882 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (560 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (2,335 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 58.4% expected score (3,962 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (572 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 56.4% expected score (30 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 61.5% expected score (1,461 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 58.7% expected score (2,092 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 69.8% expected score (188 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 62.0% expected score (1,382 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 51.1% expected score (96 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.7%) win rate for white, based on 20K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 58.6% win rate for white (1.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (60.3%) outperforms Classical (49.4%) by 10.9%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a sharpness score of 95.6 (very decisive), meaning 95.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 47.3%-59.3%) win rate for white, based on 187 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 57.5% (90% CI: 54.2%-60.9%) win rate for white, based on 587 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 54.1% (90% CI: 52.1%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 57.3% (90% CI: 56.2%-58.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 57.2% (90% CI: 56.2%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 57.6% (90% CI: 56.3%-58.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 58.6% (90% CI: 56.5%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 60.3% (90% CI: 59.4%-61.2%) win rate for white (7.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 55.1% (90% CI: 54.3%-55.9%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 54.9% (90% CI: 52.9%-56.9%) win rate for white (1.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.2%.

What is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation has a 49.4% (90% CI: 41.8%-56.9%) win rate for white (117 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.7%.

Is the French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Classical Variation, Alapin Variation is statistically favors white with a 57.1% (90% CI: 56.5%-57.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.