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French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation

402K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score45.4%Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 45.5%Based on 402K games
0%45.4%100%
Range (90% confident): 45.3% – 45.5%
Outcome Distribution
43.6%3.6%52.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.dxc5
French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation
Analyzen=402K
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 45.4% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 45.3% and 45.5%), based on 402K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 9.5% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 42% → 52%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 42.3% win rate (27,155 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.3% win rate (57,344 games)
  • 1200-1399: 42.6% win rate (79,462 games)
  • 1400-1599: 41.9% win rate (84,787 games)
  • 1600-1799: 43.0% win rate (69,647 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.7% win rate (48,260 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.9% win rate (24,209 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (10,656 games)
  • 2500+: 51.9% win rate (866 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (46%), worst in Classical (36%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.3% win rate (574 games)
  • Bullet: 45.5% win rate (92,606 games)
  • Blitz: 43.7% win rate (222,691 games)
  • Rapid: 41.5% win rate (83,497 games)
  • Classical: 36.0% win rate (3,018 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 10.6% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.5% expected score (7,239 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 45.0% expected score (15,210 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (4,664 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (27 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 39.3% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.3% expected score (12,404 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 45.3% expected score (31,955 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 44.1% expected score (12,819 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (135 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 35.6% expected score (113 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (16,101 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 44.4% expected score (43,652 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 43.9% expected score (19,034 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 36.5% expected score (562 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.8% expected score (166 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 45.1% expected score (17,556 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 43.7% expected score (45,877 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 42.4% expected score (20,047 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 38.7% expected score (1,141 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.5% expected score (153 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 46.8% expected score (14,555 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.1% expected score (38,211 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 42.9% expected score (15,890 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 39.3% expected score (838 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (54 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (10,900 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 47.9% expected score (28,748 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 46.0% expected score (8,277 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 40.6% expected score (281 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 66.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (8,499 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (13,276 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.1% expected score (2,370 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.1% expected score (31 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 54.8% expected score (9 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (4,613 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (5,637 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.2% expected score (394 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 16.7% expected score (3 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (739 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (125 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 43.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-43.7%) win rate for white, based on 402K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.5% win rate for white (11K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (45.5%) outperforms Classical (36.0%) by 9.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 41.8%-42.8%) win rate for white, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 43.3% (90% CI: 42.9%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 57K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 42.6% (90% CI: 42.3%-42.9%) win rate for white, based on 79K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 41.9% (90% CI: 41.6%-42.1%) win rate for white, based on 85K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 43.0% (90% CI: 42.7%-43.3%) win rate for white, based on 70K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.3%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 48K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 24K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.3%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 49.1%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 866 Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 42.3% (90% CI: 38.9%-45.7%) win rate for white (574 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.2%-45.7%) win rate for white (93K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.6%-43.9%) win rate for white (223K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 41.5% (90% CI: 41.2%-41.8%) win rate for white (83K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation has a 36.0% (90% CI: 34.6%-37.4%) win rate for white (3.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.3%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Steinitz Variation is slightly favors black with a 43.6% (90% CI: 43.5%-43.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.