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French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack

3.3M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score48.5%Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 48.6%Based on 3.3M games
0%48.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 48.5% – 48.6%
Outcome Distribution
46.6%3.8%49.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nf3
French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack
Analyzen=3.3M
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.8%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 48.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 48.5% and 48.6%), based on 3.3M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.3% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 45% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.6% win rate (42,078 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.7% win rate (165,590 games)
  • 1200-1399: 45.5% win rate (373,386 games)
  • 1400-1599: 45.1% win rate (621,161 games)
  • 1600-1799: 45.6% win rate (751,669 games)
  • 1800-1999: 46.9% win rate (708,371 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.8% win rate (427,887 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.9% win rate (201,655 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (38,806 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (55%), worst in Classical (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.5% win rate (1,959 games)
  • Bullet: 48.2% win rate (921,160 games)
  • Blitz: 46.2% win rate (1,829,282 games)
  • Rapid: 45.1% win rate (556,205 games)
  • Classical: 43.2% win rate (21,997 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 60.2% expected score (23 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 43.5% expected score (17,451 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (21,113 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (3,475 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (16 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 40.4% expected score (45 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (55,754 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (88,849 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 47.7% expected score (20,811 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 48.5% expected score (131 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 44.4% expected score (167 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (101,786 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 47.0% expected score (209,567 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (60,853 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (1,013 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 53.6% expected score (438 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.5% expected score (145,251 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 46.7% expected score (348,567 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 46.6% expected score (122,363 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.6% expected score (4,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.0% expected score (462 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (167,752 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 47.3% expected score (418,939 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (156,231 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.3% expected score (8,285 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 58.7% expected score (325 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.3% expected score (170,744 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.9% expected score (403,058 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 47.6% expected score (128,005 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (6,239 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (326 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (134,893 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (238,492 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 50.5% expected score (52,568 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (1,608 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (168 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (98,859 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (90,967 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (11,508 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 56.8% expected score (153 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 65.4% expected score (5 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.6% expected score (28,670 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.8% expected score (9,730 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 63.2% expected score (391 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 67.4% expected score (10 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.6%) win rate for white, based on 3.3M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (39K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (54.5%) outperforms Classical (43.2%) by 11.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a sharpness score of 96.2 (very decisive), meaning 96.2% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.2%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 42K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 45.7% (90% CI: 45.5%-45.9%) win rate for white, based on 166K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 45.5% (90% CI: 45.3%-45.6%) win rate for white, based on 373K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 45.1% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 621K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 45.6% (90% CI: 45.5%-45.7%) win rate for white, based on 752K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 46.9% (90% CI: 46.8%-47.0%) win rate for white, based on 708K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-48.9%) win rate for white, based on 428K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 50.9% (90% CI: 50.7%-51.0%) win rate for white, based on 202K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 52.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 39K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 54.5% (90% CI: 52.6%-56.3%) win rate for white (2.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.2%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 48.2% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.3%) win rate for white (921K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.2%-46.3%) win rate for white (1.8M Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 45.1% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.2%) win rate for white (556K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack has a 43.2% (90% CI: 42.6%-43.7%) win rate for white (22K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.4%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Paulsen Attack is statistically balanced with a 46.6% (90% CI: 46.5%-46.6%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.