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French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System

3.4M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Tough Sell
White Expected Score46.7%Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.7%Based on 3.4M games
0%46.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 46.7% – 46.7%
Outcome Distribution
45.0%3.4%51.6%
Win
Draw
Loss
4.Nf3
French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System
Analyzen=3.4M
Avg Length33 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.4%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 46.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 46.7% and 46.7%), based on 3.4M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · UltraBullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 44% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.3% win rate (122,873 games)
  • 1000-1199: 45.2% win rate (385,514 games)
  • 1200-1399: 44.8% win rate (704,045 games)
  • 1400-1599: 44.3% win rate (869,787 games)
  • 1600-1799: 44.4% win rate (707,112 games)
  • 1800-1999: 45.2% win rate (391,907 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.4% win rate (157,102 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.7% win rate (65,424 games)
  • 2500+: 52.7% win rate (7,458 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (53%), worst in Classical (41%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 52.7% win rate (10,740 games)
  • Bullet: 46.7% win rate (988,563 games)
  • Blitz: 44.5% win rate (1,725,275 games)
  • Rapid: 43.7% win rate (663,112 games)
  • Classical: 41.1% win rate (23,532 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (51 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 44.1% expected score (42,170 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 46.2% expected score (67,404 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 46.8% expected score (13,226 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 48.6% expected score (211 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 46.1% expected score (105,564 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 46.9% expected score (216,266 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.9% expected score (63,010 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 49.4% expected score (463 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.8% expected score (885 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 46.7% expected score (170,623 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 46.3% expected score (384,535 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (145,107 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.7% expected score (2,895 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 47.4% expected score (2,225 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.9% expected score (207,451 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (453,214 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 45.7% expected score (198,421 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (8,476 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.4% expected score (2,333 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.0% expected score (187,497 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 45.9% expected score (351,690 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 45.1% expected score (156,734 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 42.0% expected score (8,858 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (2,477 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.0% expected score (141,529 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 46.6% expected score (174,663 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 44.7% expected score (70,734 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.1% expected score (2,504 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 56.7% expected score (1,690 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (82,962 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (58,221 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 47.0% expected score (13,950 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (279 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 57.2% expected score (820 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.1% expected score (44,314 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (18,347 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (1,908 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (35 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 62.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (6,453 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.8% expected score (935 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 64.9% expected score (22 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 45.0% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.4M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.7% win rate for white (7.5K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (52.7%) outperforms Classical (41.1%) by 11.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a sharpness score of 96.6 (very decisive), meaning 96.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.0%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 123K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 386K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 704K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 44.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 870K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 44.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.5%) win rate for white, based on 707K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 45.2% (90% CI: 45.1%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 392K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 48.4% (90% CI: 48.2%-48.6%) win rate for white, based on 157K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 51.7% (90% CI: 51.4%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 65K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 52.7% (90% CI: 51.9%-53.5%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 46.7% (90% CI: 46.6%-46.8%) win rate for white (989K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 44.5% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.6%) win rate for white (1.7M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 43.7% (90% CI: 43.6%-43.8%) win rate for white (663K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.2%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System has a 41.1% (90% CI: 40.6%-41.6%) win rate for white (24K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.6%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch System is slightly favors black with a 45.0% (90% CI: 45.0%-45.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.