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French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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5.Nf3
Analyze this line move by move

White expected score · All ratings · All speeds

57.3%

45%65%
Floor56.9%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 57.6%.

Measured over 55K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for White at this level and clock.

Outcomes for White

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 55K games

Rank among the families White can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
55K
Best context
60.5% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
53.5% at 1400-1599 Bullet
Average game length
34 moves
Games that end decisively
96.5%
Draws
3.5%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +14.2% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 21.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

Where it holds · White score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for White, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 52.6% at 0-999, 62.7% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (597 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (2,021 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (2,818 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (3,543 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (9,632 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (1,171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (5,107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (13,673 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (2,159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (5,122 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (5,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (324 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (597 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Knight Variation
48.3%
French Defense: Exchange Variation
47.7%
French Defense: Normal Variation
50.3%
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Queen's Knight
48.5%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit scores 57.3% for White — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 56.9% and 57.6% — from 55K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
55K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate?

Playing the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit, White wins 55.5%, draws 3.5% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit performs best for White at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 57.8% (14K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For White, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit scores about the same in both: an Expected Score of 57.0% in Blitz (33K games) against 56.2% in Rapid (4.2K games).

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, White wins 57.1%, draws 1.4% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 392 Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, White wins 53.5%, draws 1.6% and loses 44.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.3%. It rests on 1.5K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, White wins 56.2%, draws 2.2% and loses 41.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 5.2K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, White wins 56.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.8%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, White wins 55.5%, draws 3.7% and loses 40.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.3%. It rests on 21K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, White wins 55.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.2%. It rests on 11K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, White wins 53.3%, draws 5.9% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.3%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, White wins 56.8%, draws 2.5% and loses 40.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.1%. It rests on 18K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, White wins 55.0%, draws 4.0% and loses 41.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 57.0%. It rests on 33K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, White wins 54.0%, draws 4.3% and loses 41.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 56.2%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, White wins 35.5%, draws 8.8% and loses 55.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 39.9%. It rests on 107 Lichess games.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit is good for White. Across all ratings, White wins 55.5% of its games and loses 41.0%. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.