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French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit

55K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score57.3%Range (90% confident): 56.9% – 57.6%Based on 55K games
0%57.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 56.9% – 57.6%
Outcome Distribution
55.5%3.5%41.0%
Win
Draw
Loss
5.Nf3
French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit
Analyzen=55K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.5%

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 57.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 56.9% and 57.6%), based on 55K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +14.2% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 21.3% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~53%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.9% win rate (7 games)
  • 1000-1199: 43.1% win rate (67 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.1% win rate (392 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.5% win rate (1,526 games)
  • 1600-1799: 56.2% win rate (5,194 games)
  • 1800-1999: 56.2% win rate (14,394 games)
  • 2000-2199: 55.5% win rate (20,968 games)
  • 2200-2499: 55.0% win rate (11,050 games)
  • 2500+: 53.3% win rate (1,844 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (57%), worst in UltraBullet (30%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 29.7% win rate (17 games)
  • Bullet: 56.8% win rate (18,042 games)
  • Blitz: 55.0% win rate (33,102 games)
  • Rapid: 54.0% win rate (4,174 games)
  • Classical: 35.5% win rate (107 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.1% expected score (32 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 51.6% expected score (30 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 58.0% expected score (212 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 41.5% expected score (22 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (760 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 56.4% expected score (597 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (160 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 35.7% expected score (2 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (2,021 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 56.2% expected score (2,818 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (326 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 56.7% expected score (21 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 58.4% expected score (3,543 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 57.9% expected score (9,632 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (1,171 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 30.8% expected score (48 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 60.5% expected score (5,107 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 56.3% expected score (13,673 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (2,159 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 43.5% expected score (29 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.6% expected score (5,122 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (5,600 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.7% expected score (324 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 54.3% expected score (1,240 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (597 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 73.6% expected score (7 games)

Related Openings

Parent
French Defense
45.7%
Variations (5)
French Defense: Advance Variation
48.0%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Euwe Variation
46.1%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Extended Bishop Swap
48.6%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Frenkel Gambit
46.5%
French Defense: Advance Variation, Lputian Variation
48.8%
Analyze French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 55.5% (90% CI: 55.1%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 55K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit perform best?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 56.2% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (56.8%) outperforms Classical (35.5%) by 21.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.5 (very decisive), meaning 96.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 57.1% (90% CI: 52.9%-61.1%) win rate for white, based on 392 Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 1.4% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 1.6% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.0%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 56.2% (90% CI: 55.5%-56.8%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 55.5% (90% CI: 54.9%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.2%-55.8%) win rate for white, based on 11K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.4%-55.2%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.9% draw rate.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 56.8% (90% CI: 56.2%-57.4%) win rate for white (18K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 55.0% (90% CI: 54.6%-55.5%) win rate for white (33K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 54.0% (90% CI: 52.7%-55.3%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.

What is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit has a 35.5% (90% CI: 28.1%-43.2%) win rate for white (107 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.8%.

Is the French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit a good opening?

The French Defense: Advance Variation, Nimzowitsch Gambit is statistically favors white with a 55.5% (90% CI: 55.1%-55.8%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.