Skip to content
TrueEloPlay what wins.
Analyzer

Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit

1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Key Finding

Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit is balanced for Black at 49.0% expected score.

Results are roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

You play
Tough Sell
Rating
Time
Black Expected Score49.0%Based on 1.5K gamesWin + ½×draw — predicts rating gain better than win rate
40%49.0%55%
Range (90% confident): 46.8% – 51.1%
Min adv-6.4%
ContextAll ratings · All speeds · n=1.5K
Outcome Distribution
6...O-O
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit
Analyzen=1.5K
Avg Length30 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.2%

Sharpness — share of games that end decisively

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 49.0% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 46.8% and 51.1%), based on 1.5K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: -2.8% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 8.5% · Bullet best · Rapid worst

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 45% → 40%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 44.7% win rate (22 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.2% win rate (61 games)
  • 1200-1399: 54.2% win rate (88 games)
  • 1400-1599: 49.4% win rate (119 games)
  • 1600-1799: 50.3% win rate (87 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.3% win rate (113 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.9% win rate (388 games)
  • 2200-2499: 43.4% win rate (456 games)
  • 2500+: 40.4% win rate (136 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Blitz (45%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.0% win rate (1 games)
  • Bullet: 46.6% win rate (476 games)
  • Blitz: 45.1% win rate (792 games)
  • Rapid: 53.9% win rate (185 games)
  • Classical: 54.3% win rate (16 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter — click it again to clear. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199——
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (48 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (60 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (44 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (29 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (151 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (203 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 74.6% expected score (31 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (181 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (264 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (68 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.6% expected score (63 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Four Knights Game
47.3%
Variations (5)
Four Knights Game: Italian Variation
48.7%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation Accepted
51.9%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation
50.7%
Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Classical Variation
49.0%
Four Knights Game: Scotch Variation
52.8%
Analyze Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates at your level with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit perform best?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 52.1% win rate for white (456 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.8%) outperforms Rapid (42.1%) by 7.7%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 46.9% (90% CI: 39.5%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 47.6% (90% CI: 40.0%-55.3%) win rate for white, based on 113 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 47.4% (90% CI: 43.2%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 388 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 52.1% (90% CI: 48.3%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 456 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 51.3% (90% CI: 44.3%-58.3%) win rate for white, based on 136 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 46.8%-54.3%) win rate for white (476 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 49.8% (90% CI: 46.9%-52.8%) win rate for white (792 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a 42.1% (90% CI: 36.2%-48.1%) win rate for white (185 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit a good opening?

The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit is statistically balanced with a 49.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.