Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit
1.5K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
49.0%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.1%.
Measured over 1.5K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 4.2 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 1.5K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 1.5K
- Best context
- not measured yet
- Average game length
- 30 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 95.8%
- Draws
- 4.2%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 52.5% at 0-999, 42.9% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | |||
| 1000-1199 | — | — | |||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | — | ||||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 39.7% expected score (13 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 35.7% expected score (9 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.5% expected score (31 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 54.5% expected score (21 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 60.1% expected score (48 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (28 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 40.7% expected score (20 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 54.1% expected score (60 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (44 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 56.6% expected score (29 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (24 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 48.6% expected score (66 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.1% expected score (22 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 50.4% expected score (151 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (203 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 74.6% expected score (31 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 45.4% expected score (181 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 46.4% expected score (264 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 37.0% expected score (10 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 52.2% expected score (68 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 37.6% expected score (63 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 49.0% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 46.8% and 51.1% — from 1.5K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 1.5K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 49.0% (range, 90% confident: 46.8% – 51.1%) for Black, based on 1.5K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit perform best?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit performs best at 1200-1399, where it scores 56.2% for Black (88 games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Rapid (55.9%) outperforms Bullet (48.0%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit has a sharpness score of 95.8 (very decisive), meaning 95.8% of games end decisively. Average game length is 30 moves.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 51.3% (range, 90% confident: 43.8% – 58.7%) for Black, based on 119 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 50.9% (range, 90% confident: 43.2% – 58.5%) for Black, based on 113 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 50.8% (range, 90% confident: 46.7% – 55.0%) for Black, based on 388 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 45.7% (range, 90% confident: 41.8% – 49.5%) for Black, based on 456 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 44.6% (range, 90% confident: 37.7% – 51.5%) for Black, based on 136 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 8.4% draw rate.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 48.0% (range, 90% confident: 44.3% – 51.8%) for Black (476 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.8%.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 47.7% (range, 90% confident: 44.7% – 50.6%) for Black (792 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.
What is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit scores 55.9% (range, 90% confident: 49.9% – 61.9%) for Black (185 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.
Is the Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit a good opening?
The Four Knights Game: Spanish Variation, Rubinstein Variation, Marshall Gambit is hard work for Black — it favours White with a 49.0% (range, 90% confident: 46.8% – 51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.