Continuations show the most common variations from this opening. Higher expected scores indicate better statistical outcomes, but familiarity and playstyle matter too.

Snapshot

Overall, the Elephant Gambit family has a 50.6% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 50.6%), aggregated from 4 variations and 6.8M Lichess games.

Black Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~45%)

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

2200

2500+

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in Classical (42%)

UltraBullet

Bullet

Blitz

Rapid

Classical

Rating vs Time Control Matrix

Click cells to filter · Black expected scores

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

Rating	UB	Bulle	Blitz	Rapid	Class
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (1,525 games)
0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (128,652 games)
0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (261,085 games)
0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (142,285 games)
0-999 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (1,257 games)
1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (3,191 games)
1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (173,239 games)
1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (343,860 games)
1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (180,827 games)
1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (4,043 games)
1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (5,103 games)
1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (251,824 games)
1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (445,395 games)
1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (212,108 games)
1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (7,851 games)
1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (8,384 games)
1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (329,011 games)
1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (571,989 games)
1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (222,777 games)
1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (11,906 games)
1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (6,445 games)
1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (390,117 games)
1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (692,275 games)
1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (210,503 games)
1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (8,863 games)
1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (4,052 games)
1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (376,070 games)
1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (653,273 games)
1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (169,910 games)
1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (6,070 games)
2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (2,149 games)
2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (283,935 games)
2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (310,106 games)
2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (62,533 games)
2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (1,760 games)
2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (1,116 games)
2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (175,869 games)
2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (81,992 games)
2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (7,871 games)
2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (110 games)
2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (71 games)
2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (31,484 games)
2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (5,769 games)
2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (157 games)
2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Matrix view reveals how performance varies across rating brackets and time controls. Green indicates favorable, red indicates challenging contexts.

Variations (4)

Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation19K games

Winning62.8%

Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit2.2M games

Winning53.5%

Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit124K games

Balanced51.5%

Elephant Gambit4.5M games

Balanced49.1%

Analyze Elephant Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Elephant Gambit win rate?

The Elephant Gambit family has a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.8%) win rate for white, aggregated from 4 variations and 6.8M rated games from Lichess.

How many Elephant Gambit variations are there?

This analysis covers 4 Elephant Gambit variations with sufficient game data. Each variation has its own statistics page with detailed win rates by rating and time control.

At what rating does the Elephant Gambit perform best?

The Elephant Gambit family performs best at 0-999 Elo with a 51.3% win rate for white (535K games). Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Elephant Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (54.0%) outperforms Bullet (46.5%) by 7.5% across all Elephant Gambit variations.

How sharp is the Elephant Gambit?

Elephant Gambit games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Elephant Gambit a good opening family?

The Elephant Gambit family is statistically balanced overall with a 47.7% (90% CI: 47.7%-47.8%) aggregated win rate. However, win rates vary significantly between the 4 variations—explore individual lines to find the best fit for your style.

What Should I Play?

What is the Elephant Gambit expected score for Black?