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Elephant Gambit

4 variations · 6.8M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · Overall

50.6%

45%55%
Floor50.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 6.8M games at this level and clock.

Playablewins about as often as it loses at this level

Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.5 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 6.8M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
#7 of 62
Games in this context
6.8M
Best context
54.2% at 1400-1599 UltraBullet
Worst context
41.1% at 2200-2499 UltraBullet
Variations measured
4
Average game length
31 moves

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

What to play from here

Black · Overall
#1Elephant Gambit: Wasp VariationBest here
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 d5 3.Nxe5 dxe4 4.Bc4 Qg5
Floor 62.2% · 19K games
62.8%
#2Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 d5 3.exd5 e4
Floor 53.5% · 2.2M games
53.5%
#3Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 d5 3.exd5 Bd6
Floor 51.2% · 124K games
51.5%
#4Elephant Gambit
1.e4 e5 2.Nf3 d5
Floor 49.0% · 4.5M games
49.1%

These are the moves players actually choose from here, ranked by how they score. A higher score is a better bet on the numbers alone — familiarity and playstyle still matter.

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 47.3% at 0-999, 45.3% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.0% expected score (1,525 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (128,652 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.1% expected score (261,085 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 45.2% expected score (142,285 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 43.1% expected score (1,257 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.1% expected score (3,191 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (173,239 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (343,860 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 45.4% expected score (180,827 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.9% expected score (4,043 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 49.2% expected score (5,103 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (251,824 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (445,395 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 46.3% expected score (212,108 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (7,851 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 54.2% expected score (8,384 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (329,011 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 51.0% expected score (571,989 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (222,777 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (11,906 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 49.5% expected score (6,445 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (390,117 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (692,275 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.1% expected score (210,503 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (8,863 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 45.2% expected score (4,052 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (376,070 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (653,273 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (169,910 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 49.7% expected score (6,070 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 46.5% expected score (2,149 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (283,935 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.2% expected score (310,106 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (62,533 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 44.5% expected score (1,760 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 41.1% expected score (1,116 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.9% expected score (175,869 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.3% expected score (81,992 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 44.4% expected score (7,871 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 42.4% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 37.6% expected score (71 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 49.8% expected score (31,484 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 45.8% expected score (5,769 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 43.4% expected score (157 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

4 variations · ranked by floor

Floor — the worst score you would still get, 90% confident.

1
Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation19K games
62.8%Floor 62.2%
2
Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit2.2M games
53.5%Floor 53.5%
3
Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit124K games
51.5%Floor 51.2%
Elephant Gambit4.5M games
49.1%Floor 49.0%
Analyze Elephant Gambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Elephant Gambit family scores 50.6% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 50.5% and 50.6% — from 6.8M Lichess games across 4 variations. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
6.8M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Elephant Gambit win rate?

Across the Elephant Gambit's 4 variations, Black wins 48.8%, draws 3.5% and loses 47.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.6%. It rests on 6.8M rated games from Lichess.

How many Elephant Gambit variations are there?

4 Elephant Gambit variations have a page of their own, each broken down by rating and by clock.

At what rating does the Elephant Gambit perform best?

The Elephant Gambit family performs best for Black at 1800-1999, with an Expected Score of 52.4% (1.2M games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read. Performance may vary by specific variation.

Is the Elephant Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Elephant Gambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 50.5% in Blitz (3.4M games) against 47.8% in Rapid (1.2M games).

How sharp is the Elephant Gambit?

Elephant Gambit games are 96.5% decisive (non-draws), with an average length of 31 moves. Sharpness varies by specific variation.

Is the Elephant Gambit a good opening family?

The Elephant Gambit family is about level overall. Across its games, Black wins 48.8% and loses 47.7%. Results differ between its 4 variations, so open the one you play for its own figures.