Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit
124K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds
51.5%
the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 51.7%.
Measured over 124K games at this level and clock.
Roughly even — the middlegame decides more than this opening choice does.
Outcomes for Black
Draw 3.0 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 124K games
- Rank among the families Black can choose here
- not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
- Games in this context
- 124K
- Best context
- 55.0% at 1800-1999 Bullet
- Worst context
- 44.0% at 2200-2499 Blitz
- Average game length
- 32 moves
- Games that end decisively
- 97.0%
- Draws
- 3.0%
Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.
Extra Analysis
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock
Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 46.5% at 0-999, 44.5% at 2500+.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | |||||
| 1000-1199 | |||||
| 1200-1399 | |||||
| 1400-1599 | |||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | |||||
| 2500+ |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
- 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 31.9% expected score (4 games)
- 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (877 games)
- 0-999 rating, Blitz: 48.7% expected score (991 games)
- 0-999 rating, Rapid: 41.4% expected score (414 games)
- 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,374 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 48.4% expected score (3,076 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 46.7% expected score (808 games)
- 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 27.8% expected score (12 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.0% expected score (2,579 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 48.0% expected score (5,607 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 48.2% expected score (1,921 games)
- 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (31 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 64.2% expected score (157 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (5,599 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (10,404 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 47.2% expected score (2,561 games)
- 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 42.3% expected score (63 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 54.9% expected score (366 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (8,666 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.4% expected score (14,065 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 50.9% expected score (3,548 games)
- 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.9% expected score (72 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 44.2% expected score (119 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (9,599 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.2% expected score (19,259 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (2,881 games)
- 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (49 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.8% expected score (10,486 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 49.4% expected score (9,316 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 46.5% expected score (1,286 games)
- 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.4% expected score (4,956 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 44.1% expected score (2,089 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.7% expected score (212 games)
- 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
- 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 40.9% expected score (4 games)
- 2500+ rating, Bullet: 48.3% expected score (508 games)
- 2500+ rating, Blitz: 42.5% expected score (65 games)
- 2500+ rating, Rapid: 40.9% expected score (26 games)
- 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (1 games)
Related Openings
Methodology
Across every rating and clock, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 51.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 51.2% and 51.7% — from 124K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.
How the figures are made
- Whose games these are
- 124K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
- Which games we count
- Rated games only — nothing casual.
- Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
- At least 2 moves played.
- A game is filed under White’s rating.
- Why every number comes with a range
- A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
- How much we need before we say anything
- An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games before we will say where it stops working. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate?
The Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 51.5% (range, 90% confident: 51.2% – 51.7%) for Black, based on 124K rated games from Lichess.
At what rating does the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit perform best?
The Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit performs best at 1800-1999, where it scores 52.9% for Black (32K games). It tends to score less at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
For Black, Bullet (53.5%) outperforms Classical (44.2%). Choose your time control wisely.
How sharp is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit?
The Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 0-999?
At 0-999, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 47.6% (range, 90% confident: 45.9% – 49.4%) for Black, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1000-1199?
At 1000-1199, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 48.5% (range, 90% confident: 47.4% – 49.6%) for Black, based on 5.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1200-1399?
At 1200-1399, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 49.3% (range, 90% confident: 48.5% – 50.2%) for Black, based on 10K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1400-1599?
At 1400-1599, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 50.8% (range, 90% confident: 50.2% – 51.4%) for Black, based on 19K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1600-1799?
At 1600-1799, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 52.7% (range, 90% confident: 52.2% – 53.2%) for Black, based on 27K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 1800-1999?
At 1800-1999, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 52.9% (range, 90% confident: 52.5% – 53.4%) for Black, based on 32K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2000-2199?
At 2000-2199, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 50.9% (range, 90% confident: 50.4% – 51.5%) for Black, based on 21K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2200-2499?
At 2200-2499, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 50.4% (range, 90% confident: 49.5% – 51.4%) for Black, based on 7.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate at 2500+?
At 2500+, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 47.3% (range, 90% confident: 44.0% – 50.6%) for Black, based on 604 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?
In UltraBullet games, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 55.3% (range, 90% confident: 52.2% – 58.4%) for Black (682 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.0%.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate in Bullet?
In Bullet games, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 53.5% (range, 90% confident: 53.1% – 53.9%) for Black (45K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.1%.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate in Blitz?
In Blitz games, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 50.6% (range, 90% confident: 50.3% – 50.9%) for Black (65K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.4%.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate in Rapid?
In Rapid games, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 48.8% (range, 90% confident: 48.1% – 49.5%) for Black (14K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.
What is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit win rate in Classical?
In Classical games, the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit scores 44.2% (range, 90% confident: 39.0% – 49.5%) for Black (239 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.1%.
Is the Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit a good opening?
The Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit is about level with a 47.1% (range, 90% confident: 46.8% – 47.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.