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Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation

19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score62.8%Range (90% confident): 62.2% – 63.3%Based on 19K games
0%62.8%100%
Range (90% confident): 62.2% – 63.3%
Outcome Distribution
61.4%2.7%35.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Qg5
Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation
Analyzen=19K
Avg Length25 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate2.7%

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 62.8% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 62.2% and 63.3%), based on 19K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +26.1% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 98.3 · Trap factor: -13.3 · n=19K

Black Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 57% → 61%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 57.3% win rate (343 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.5% win rate (469 games)
  • 1200-1399: 57.5% win rate (836 games)
  • 1400-1599: 60.7% win rate (1,572 games)
  • 1600-1799: 63.1% win rate (3,480 games)
  • 1800-1999: 62.3% win rate (6,153 games)
  • 2000-2199: 61.4% win rate (4,180 games)
  • 2200-2499: 58.3% win rate (1,441 games)
  • 2500+: 60.6% win rate (222 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (67%), worst in Rapid (59%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 67.4% win rate (20 games)
  • Bullet: 64.2% win rate (4,333 games)
  • Blitz: 60.9% win rate (10,566 games)
  • Rapid: 59.2% win rate (3,651 games)
  • Classical: 62.4% win rate (126 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (94 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (84 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (244 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (408 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (215 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 64.0% expected score (423 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (794 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (343 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 64.7% expected score (663 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (2,134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.4% expected score (647 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 74.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.5% expected score (1,128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.2% expected score (3,654 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 67.3% expected score (919 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (2,446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (799 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.5% expected score (624 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (706 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (196 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (26 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Elephant Gambit
49.2%
Variations (2)
Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit
44.8%
Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit
47.1%
Analyze Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate?

The Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 35.9% (90% CI: 35.4%-36.5%) win rate for white, based on 19K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation perform best?

The Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation performs best at 1200-1399 Elo with a 40.8% win rate for white (836 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (37.7%) outperforms Classical (35.7%) by 2.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation?

The Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 25 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 38.8% (90% CI: 34.5%-43.1%) win rate for white, based on 343 Lichess games. Average game length is 20 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 40.7% (90% CI: 37.0%-44.4%) win rate for white, based on 469 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.8% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 40.8% (90% CI: 38.0%-43.6%) win rate for white, based on 836 Lichess games. Average game length is 22 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 37.3% (90% CI: 35.3%-39.3%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 23 moves with a 2.1% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 34.1% (90% CI: 32.8%-35.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 35.2% (90% CI: 34.2%-36.2%) win rate for white, based on 6.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 25 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 35.3% (90% CI: 34.1%-36.5%) win rate for white, based on 4.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.3% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 39.0% (90% CI: 36.9%-41.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 35.1% (90% CI: 30.0%-40.4%) win rate for white, based on 222 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 34.0% (90% CI: 32.9%-35.2%) win rate for white (4.3K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 36.1% (90% CI: 35.4%-36.9%) win rate for white (11K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.9%.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 37.7% (90% CI: 36.3%-39.0%) win rate for white (3.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.2%.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a 35.7% (90% CI: 28.9%-42.8%) win rate for white (126 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.0%.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation a good opening?

The Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation is slightly favors black with a 35.9% (90% CI: 35.4%-36.5%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1200-1399 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.