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Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation

19K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

62.8%

45%70%
Floor62.2%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. At best 63.3%.

Measured over 19K games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 2.7 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 19K games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
19K
Best context
67.3% at 2000-2199 Bullet
Worst context
56.9% at 2200-2499 Blitz
Average game length
25 moves
Games that end decisively
97.3%
Draws
2.7%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +26.1% · Breakpoint: Never

Traps & Chaos

Complexity: 98.3 · Trap factor: −13.3 · 19K games

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It gets better as the rating rises: 51.6% at 0-999, 59.6% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999—
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599—
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+———

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (94 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.6% expected score (154 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 58.4% expected score (94 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.0% expected score (84 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 59.4% expected score (244 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 56.9% expected score (138 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 62.8% expected score (202 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (408 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 58.6% expected score (215 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 64.0% expected score (423 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 62.3% expected score (794 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 57.6% expected score (343 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 53.7% expected score (12 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 64.7% expected score (663 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 64.3% expected score (2,134 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 64.4% expected score (647 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 74.7% expected score (35 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 74.2% expected score (13 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 66.5% expected score (1,128 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 63.2% expected score (3,654 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 62.1% expected score (1,305 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 58.3% expected score (53 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 67.3% expected score (919 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 62.7% expected score (2,446 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 59.4% expected score (799 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 61.5% expected score (16 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 63.5% expected score (624 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (706 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.4% expected score (110 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 63.7% expected score (196 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 55.5% expected score (26 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Elephant Gambit
49.2%
Variations (2)
Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit
44.8%
Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit
47.1%
Analyze Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation scores 62.8% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 62.2% and 63.3% — from 19K Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
19K+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate?

Playing the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation, Black wins 61.4%, draws 2.7% and loses 35.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.8%. It rests on 19K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation perform best?

The Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation performs best for Black at 1600-1799, with an Expected Score of 64.5% (3.5K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 62.4% in Blitz (11K games) against 60.8% in Rapid (3.7K games).

How sharp is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation?

The Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation has a sharpness score of 97.3 (very decisive), meaning 97.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 25 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 57.3%, draws 3.9% and loses 38.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.3%. It rests on 343 Lichess games, which average 20 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 57.5%, draws 1.8% and loses 40.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 469 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 57.5%, draws 1.7% and loses 40.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 58.4%. It rests on 836 Lichess games, which average 22 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 60.7%, draws 2.1% and loses 37.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 61.7%. It rests on 1.6K Lichess games, which average 23 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 63.1%, draws 2.8% and loses 34.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 64.5%. It rests on 3.5K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 62.3%, draws 2.5% and loses 35.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.6%. It rests on 6.2K Lichess games, which average 25 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 61.4%, draws 3.3% and loses 35.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.1%. It rests on 4.2K Lichess games, which average 27 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 58.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 39.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 59.7%. It rests on 1.4K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 60.6%, draws 4.3% and loses 35.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.8%. It rests on 222 Lichess games, which average 29 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 64.2%, draws 1.8% and loses 34.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 65.1%. It rests on 4.3K Lichess games.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 60.9%, draws 2.9% and loses 36.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 62.4%. It rests on 11K Lichess games.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 59.2%, draws 3.2% and loses 37.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 60.8%. It rests on 3.7K Lichess games.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 62.4%, draws 2.0% and loses 35.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 63.4%. It rests on 126 Lichess games.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation a good opening?

The Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 61.4% of its games and loses 35.9%. It performs best at 1600-1799. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.