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Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit

2.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Black Expected Score53.5%Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 53.6%Based on 2.2M games
0%53.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.5% – 53.6%
Outcome Distribution
51.8%3.3%44.8%
Win
Draw
Loss
3...e4
Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit
Analyzen=2.2M
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness97%
Draw Rate3.3%

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit expected score for Black?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 53.5% expected score for Black (we're 90% confident it's between 53.5% and 53.6%), based on 2.2M Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +9.3% · Breakpoint: Never

Black Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 52% → 46%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 52.3% win rate (45,050 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.4% win rate (112,658 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.7% win rate (239,758 games)
  • 1400-1599: 52.6% win rate (405,853 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.4% win rate (542,088 games)
  • 1800-1999: 51.5% win rate (486,787 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.0% win rate (230,413 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.2% win rate (89,089 games)
  • 2500+: 45.8% win rate (13,956 games)

Black Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (54%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.8% win rate (1,801 games)
  • Bullet: 53.8% win rate (685,468 games)
  • Blitz: 51.3% win rate (1,138,175 games)
  • Rapid: 49.7% win rate (330,429 games)
  • Classical: 48.0% win rate (9,779 games)

Black% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (67 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (18,111 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (18,749 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (8,041 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (39,525 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (55,109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (17,670 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (224 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (243 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (77,882 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (124,886 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (36,142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (605 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.1% expected score (375 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (114,590 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (220,748 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (68,311 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (1,829 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (361 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (141,334 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (305,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (91,534 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (3,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (270 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (132,488 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (271,611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (79,333 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (3,085 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (92,929 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (110,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (26,327 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (865 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (57,526 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (28,362 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (2,999 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (11,083 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,776 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (72 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Elephant Gambit
49.2%
Variations (2)
Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit
47.1%
Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation
35.9%
Analyze Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate?

The Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.8%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 2.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit perform best?

The Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 47.3% win rate for white (14K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (47.1%) outperforms Bullet (43.9%) by 3.2%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit?

The Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.6%-45.4%) win rate for white, based on 45K Lichess games. Average game length is 24 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.8%-45.3%) win rate for white, based on 113K Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 44.7% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 240K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 2.6% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 44.6% (90% CI: 44.5%-44.7%) win rate for white, based on 406K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 44.4% (90% CI: 44.3%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 542K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.7%-44.9%) win rate for white, based on 487K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 45.8% (90% CI: 45.6%-46.0%) win rate for white, based on 230K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.2% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 45.7%-46.2%) win rate for white, based on 89K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 47.3% (90% CI: 46.6%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 14K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 6.9% draw rate.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 46.4% (90% CI: 44.4%-48.3%) win rate for white (1.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-44.0%) win rate for white (685K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.3%.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 45.0% (90% CI: 44.9%-45.1%) win rate for white (1.1M Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.7%.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 46.2% (90% CI: 46.1%-46.4%) win rate for white (330K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.1%.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a 47.1% (90% CI: 46.3%-47.9%) win rate for white (9.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.9%.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit a good opening?

The Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit is slightly favors black with a 44.8% (90% CI: 44.8%-44.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.