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Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit

2.2M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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Analyze this line move by move

Black expected score · All ratings · All speeds

53.5%

45%60%
Floor53.5%

the worst score you would still get, 90% confident. Its best is the same figure — the band is too tight to plot.

Measured over 2.2M games at this level and clock.

Play Thiswins clearly more often than it loses at this level

A strong choice for Black at this level and clock.

Outcomes for Black

Draw 3.3 · Score = win + ½ of the draws · 2.2M games

Rank among the families Black can choose here
not ranked — this is a variation, not a family
Games in this context
2.2M
Best context
56.7% at 0-999 Bullet
Worst context
43.3% at 2200-2499 Rapid
Average game length
31 moves
Games that end decisively
96.7%
Draws
3.3%

Best and worst are the strongest and weakest squares with at least 500 games behind them. The table further down shows every square, including thinner ones.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointBlack

Peak: +9.3% · Breakpoint: Never

Where it holds · Black score by rating × clock

Green is clearly ahead for Black, grey is around even, red is behind. Tap a cell to measure there, and again to clear. It falls away as the rating rises: 51.7% at 0-999, 42.5% at 2500+.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 56.6% expected score (67 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 56.7% expected score (18,111 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 52.5% expected score (18,749 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.9% expected score (8,041 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 42.8% expected score (82 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (130 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (39,525 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (55,109 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 51.1% expected score (17,670 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 52.0% expected score (224 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 59.6% expected score (243 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (77,882 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (124,886 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.4% expected score (36,142 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 45.8% expected score (605 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 62.1% expected score (375 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 56.1% expected score (114,590 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.6% expected score (220,748 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.9% expected score (68,311 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 48.1% expected score (1,829 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (361 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.3% expected score (141,334 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (305,825 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (91,534 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.7% expected score (3,034 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 49.1% expected score (270 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 54.5% expected score (132,488 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (271,611 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 52.4% expected score (79,333 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 52.8% expected score (3,085 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 45.7% expected score (183 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.9% expected score (92,929 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (110,109 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 49.2% expected score (26,327 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 46.9% expected score (865 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (147 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (57,526 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 49.7% expected score (28,362 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 43.3% expected score (2,999 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 41.2% expected score (55 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 27.4% expected score (25 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 50.0% expected score (11,083 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 46.5% expected score (2,776 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 45.9% expected score (72 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Elephant Gambit
49.2%
Variations (2)
Elephant Gambit: Maróczy Gambit
47.1%
Elephant Gambit: Wasp Variation
35.9%
Analyze Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit PositionsSee what each move is worth at your rating, move by move

Methodology

Across every rating and clock, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit scores 53.5% for Black — we are 90% confident the real figure is between 53.5% and 53.6% — from 2.2M Lichess games. Win rate, draw rate and loss rate come from games played December 2023 to November 2025.

How the figures are made
Whose games these are
2.2M+ rated games played on Lichess (2023-12 to 2025-11). The games are Lichess’s and free for anyone to use. What is ours is the reading of them. Last rebuilt January 2026.
Which games we count
  • Rated games only — nothing casual.
  • Both players within 200 rating points of each other. A mismatch tells you about the gap, not about the opening.
  • At least 2 moves played.
  • A game is filed under White’s rating.
Why every number comes with a range
A number off a few hundred games is a guess. The same number off millions is a fact. The range is what tells them apart, and it is what the lists rank on — so an opening cannot reach the top on a lucky run of forty games. The more games behind a figure, the narrower its range.
How much we need before we say anything
An opening page needs 100 games. A gambit needs 50 games at a rating before we will say whether it pays there. The chaos and trap lists need 500 games overall and 250 games at one rating or clock.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate?

Playing the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit, Black wins 51.8%, draws 3.3% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.5%. It rests on 2.2M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit perform best?

The Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit performs best for Black at 1400-1599, with an Expected Score of 54.0% (406K games) and the highest Floor of any rating with enough games to read.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit better in blitz or rapid?

For Black, the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit scores higher in Blitz: an Expected Score of 53.2% in Blitz (1.1M games) against 51.8% in Rapid (330K games).

How sharp is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit?

The Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit has a sharpness score of 96.7 (very decisive), meaning 96.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 0-999?

At 0-999, Black wins 52.3%, draws 2.7% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 45K Lichess games, which average 24 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1000-1199?

At 1000-1199, Black wins 52.4%, draws 2.5% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.7%. It rests on 113K Lichess games, which average 26 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1200-1399?

At 1200-1399, Black wins 52.7%, draws 2.6% and loses 44.7%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 240K Lichess games, which average 28 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1400-1599?

At 1400-1599, Black wins 52.6%, draws 2.9% and loses 44.6%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 406K Lichess games, which average 30 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1600-1799?

At 1600-1799, Black wins 52.4%, draws 3.2% and loses 44.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 54.0%. It rests on 542K Lichess games, which average 32 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 1800-1999?

At 1800-1999, Black wins 51.5%, draws 3.8% and loses 44.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.4%. It rests on 487K Lichess games, which average 33 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 2000-2199?

At 2000-2199, Black wins 50.0%, draws 4.2% and loses 45.8%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.1%. It rests on 230K Lichess games, which average 35 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 2200-2499?

At 2200-2499, Black wins 49.2%, draws 4.9% and loses 45.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.7%. It rests on 89K Lichess games, which average 36 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate at 2500+?

At 2500+, Black wins 45.8%, draws 6.9% and loses 47.3%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 49.3%. It rests on 14K Lichess games, which average 40 moves.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet, Black wins 51.8%, draws 1.8% and loses 46.4%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 52.7%. It rests on 1.8K Lichess games.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet, Black wins 53.8%, draws 2.3% and loses 43.9%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 55.0%. It rests on 685K Lichess games.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz, Black wins 51.3%, draws 3.7% and loses 45.0%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 53.2%. It rests on 1.1M Lichess games.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid, Black wins 49.7%, draws 4.1% and loses 46.2%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 51.8%. It rests on 330K Lichess games.

What is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical, Black wins 48.0%, draws 4.9% and loses 47.1%. Counting a draw as half a point, that is an Expected Score of 50.5%. It rests on 9.8K Lichess games.

Is the Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit a good opening?

The Elephant Gambit: Paulsen Countergambit is good for Black. Across all ratings, Black wins 51.8% of its games and loses 44.8%. It performs best at 1400-1599. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.