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Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation

90K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score52.3%Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.6%Based on 90K games
0%52.3%100%
Range (90% confident): 52.0% – 52.6%
Outcome Distribution
49.1%6.4%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
8.Ba3
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation
Analyzen=90K
Avg Length39 moves
Sharpness94%
Draw Rate6.4%

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 52.3% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 52.0% and 52.6%), based on 90K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 60% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 60.0% win rate (31 games)
  • 1000-1199: 44.2% win rate (201 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.0% win rate (674 games)
  • 1400-1599: 47.0% win rate (2,426 games)
  • 1600-1799: 47.5% win rate (7,831 games)
  • 1800-1999: 47.6% win rate (19,760 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.8% win rate (27,575 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.3% win rate (26,325 games)
  • 2500+: 52.8% win rate (5,667 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in UltraBullet (60%), worst in Classical (46%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 60.4% win rate (92 games)
  • Bullet: 49.5% win rate (42,937 games)
  • Blitz: 48.5% win rate (43,087 games)
  • Rapid: 50.3% win rate (4,200 games)
  • Classical: 46.4% win rate (174 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999———
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+—

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 58.2% expected score (17 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 45.9% expected score (118 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 44.5% expected score (70 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 38.9% expected score (12 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (366 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 51.4% expected score (263 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 66.1% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 57.3% expected score (19 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 47.2% expected score (1,199 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.6% expected score (1,057 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 49.7% expected score (144 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 26.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 57.6% expected score (25 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 48.8% expected score (3,428 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 49.9% expected score (3,906 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (443 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 68.0% expected score (29 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 53.8% expected score (25 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (6,966 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (11,371 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 51.7% expected score (1,329 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 42.9% expected score (69 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 85.5% expected score (14 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.2% expected score (11,091 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.6% expected score (14,862 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 55.1% expected score (1,549 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.9% expected score (59 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 63.4% expected score (6 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (14,886 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.4% expected score (10,765 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (661 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 67.7% expected score (7 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 57.0% expected score (4,866 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 61.4% expected score (779 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 68.6% expected score (20 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Continuations (2)
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Botvinnik Variation
48.8%
Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation, Modern Variation
49.4%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 90K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 52.8% win rate for white (5.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation better in blitz or rapid?

UltraBullet (60.4%) outperforms Classical (46.4%) by 14.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a sharpness score of 93.6 (decisive), meaning 93.6% of games end decisively. Average game length is 39 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 44.2% (90% CI: 38.5%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 201 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 50.0% (90% CI: 46.8%-53.1%) win rate for white, based on 674 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 47.0% (90% CI: 45.4%-48.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 47.5% (90% CI: 46.5%-48.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 47.6% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.2%) win rate for white, based on 20K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 48.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-49.3%) win rate for white, based on 28K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.8%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 26K Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 51.7%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 9.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 49.5% (90% CI: 49.1%-49.9%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.1%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 48.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-48.9%) win rate for white (43K Lichess games). Draw rate is 7.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 50.3% (90% CI: 49.0%-51.5%) win rate for white (4.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation has a 46.4% (90% CI: 40.3%-52.6%) win rate for white (174 Lichess games). Draw rate is 13.4%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Stonewall Variation is statistically favors white with a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-49.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.