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Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation

26K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score54.5%Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 55.0%Based on 26K games
0%54.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.0% – 55.0%
Outcome Distribution
51.8%5.3%42.9%
Win
Draw
Loss
4...Bb4+
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation
Analyzen=26K
Avg Length36 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate5.3%

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 54.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.0% and 55.0%), based on 26K Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 51% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 50.7% win rate (33 games)
  • 1000-1199: 52.2% win rate (145 games)
  • 1200-1399: 50.8% win rate (448 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.6% win rate (1,230 games)
  • 1600-1799: 51.6% win rate (3,276 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.5% win rate (6,450 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.5% win rate (7,944 games)
  • 2200-2499: 53.3% win rate (5,809 games)
  • 2500+: 52.9% win rate (869 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Rapid (53%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (9 games)
  • Bullet: 51.1% win rate (7,493 games)
  • Blitz: 51.9% win rate (15,983 games)
  • Rapid: 53.3% win rate (2,568 games)
  • Classical: 52.8% win rate (151 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199
1200-1399—
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199—
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 55.1% expected score (18 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (68 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.8% expected score (63 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 42.6% expected score (12 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (201 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 52.9% expected score (208 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.4% expected score (36 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (392 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.2% expected score (706 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 63.5% expected score (121 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 31.0% expected score (9 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 50.0% expected score (3 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.3% expected score (940 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (2,027 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (284 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (22 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 38.9% expected score (3 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.9% expected score (1,448 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.3% expected score (4,153 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.6% expected score (779 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 57.3% expected score (67 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (1,902 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.7% expected score (5,100 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.0% expected score (895 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 59.3% expected score (47 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (2,013 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (3,368 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 61.4% expected score (426 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 56.5% expected score (517 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 56.6% expected score (340 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 53.7% expected score (12 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Continuations (1)
Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation, Alekhine Variation
50.1%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.3%) win rate for white, based on 26K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation performs best at 2200-2499 Elo with a 53.3% win rate for white (5.8K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Rapid (53.3%) outperforms Classical (52.8%) by 0.5%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a sharpness score of 94.7 (decisive), meaning 94.7% of games end decisively. Average game length is 36 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 45.4%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 145 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 0.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 50.8% (90% CI: 47.0%-54.7%) win rate for white, based on 448 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 53.6% (90% CI: 51.3%-56.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 50.1%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 3.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.5%-51.5%) win rate for white, based on 6.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 50.6%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 7.9K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 52.2%-54.4%) win rate for white, based on 5.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.6% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.1%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 869 Lichess games. Average game length is 41 moves with a 7.2% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 51.1% (90% CI: 50.2%-52.1%) win rate for white (7.5K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.0%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.2%-52.5%) win rate for white (16K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 51.6%-54.9%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.7%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation has a 52.8% (90% CI: 46.1%-59.4%) win rate for white (151 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.6%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Nimzo-Dutch Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.3%-52.3%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2200-2499 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.