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Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line

5.2K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score55.7%Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 56.8%Based on 5.2K games
0%55.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 54.5% – 56.8%
Outcome Distribution
53.8%3.7%42.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.g4
Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line
Analyzen=5.2K
Avg Length31 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.7%

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 55.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 54.5% and 56.8%), based on 5.2K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +9.5% · Breakpoint: 1000-1199

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 69% → 60%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 68.6% win rate (24 games)
  • 1000-1199: 57.4% win rate (69 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.8% win rate (150 games)
  • 1400-1599: 56.9% win rate (477 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.9% win rate (1,005 games)
  • 1800-1999: 54.4% win rate (1,587 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.6% win rate (1,309 games)
  • 2200-2499: 54.6% win rate (503 games)
  • 2500+: 59.6% win rate (43 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (61%), worst in Rapid (53%)

Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • Bullet: 53.7% win rate (1,032 games)
  • Blitz: 53.7% win rate (3,352 games)
  • Rapid: 53.4% win rate (743 games)
  • Classical: 61.4% win rate (40 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399—
1400-1599—
1600-1799—
1800-1999—
2000-2199—
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 65.2% expected score (15 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 79.5% expected score (7 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 60.2% expected score (28 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 58.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.9% expected score (42 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 54.0% expected score (87 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.9% expected score (14 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 44.2% expected score (7 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 59.3% expected score (69 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 59.0% expected score (323 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 55.6% expected score (80 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 57.7% expected score (5 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 58.8% expected score (169 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (687 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 55.2% expected score (142 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 55.9% expected score (7 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (245 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 56.7% expected score (1,079 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (245 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 80.8% expected score (18 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 52.4% expected score (249 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (859 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (199 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 64.3% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 56.0% expected score (191 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 56.9% expected score (259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.0% expected score (53 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.9% expected score (24 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 67.2% expected score (16 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 83.4% expected score (3 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 5.2K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 56.9% win rate for white (477 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (53.7%) outperforms Rapid (53.4%) by 0.3%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a sharpness score of 96.3 (very decisive), meaning 96.3% of games end decisively. Average game length is 31 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 51.8% (90% CI: 45.1%-58.5%) win rate for white, based on 150 Lichess games. Average game length is 26 moves with a 2.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 56.9% (90% CI: 53.2%-60.7%) win rate for white, based on 477 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 52.9% (90% CI: 50.3%-55.5%) win rate for white, based on 1.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 54.4% (90% CI: 52.3%-56.4%) win rate for white, based on 1.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 51.6% (90% CI: 49.4%-53.9%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 54.6% (90% CI: 51.0%-58.2%) win rate for white, based on 503 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 53.7% (90% CI: 51.2%-56.3%) win rate for white (1.0K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.2%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 53.7% (90% CI: 52.3%-55.2%) win rate for white (3.4K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line has a 53.4% (90% CI: 50.4%-56.4%) win rate for white (743 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Manhattan Gambit, Anti-Classical Line is statistically favors white with a 53.8% (90% CI: 52.6%-54.9%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.