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Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation

16K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.9%Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 54.5%Based on 16K games
0%53.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.3% – 54.5%
Outcome Distribution
51.4%4.9%43.7%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.g3
Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation
Analyzen=16K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness95%
Draw Rate4.9%

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 53.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.3% and 54.5%), based on 16K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 11.6% · Classical best · Bullet worst

White Win% by Rating

Stable across ratings (~48%)

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.1% win rate (147 games)
  • 1000-1199: 54.8% win rate (377 games)
  • 1200-1399: 52.7% win rate (740 games)
  • 1400-1599: 53.5% win rate (1,439 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.1% win rate (2,726 games)
  • 1800-1999: 50.6% win rate (4,333 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.9% win rate (3,773 games)
  • 2200-2499: 51.7% win rate (2,296 games)
  • 2500+: 46.7% win rate (385 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Classical (61%), worst in Bullet (50%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 54.3% win rate (16 games)
  • Bullet: 49.8% win rate (4,726 games)
  • Blitz: 51.0% win rate (9,164 games)
  • Rapid: 55.9% win rate (2,182 games)
  • Classical: 61.4% win rate (128 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499——
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 35.5% expected score (33 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 56.1% expected score (81 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 58.7% expected score (102 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 53.5% expected score (186 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (85 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (4 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 21.5% expected score (2 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 45.0% expected score (226 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 55.7% expected score (352 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 62.7% expected score (152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 71.1% expected score (8 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.0% expected score (376 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 55.3% expected score (805 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 65.6% expected score (246 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 86.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 60.6% expected score (8 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 49.4% expected score (690 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 54.5% expected score (1,542 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 59.3% expected score (442 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 66.5% expected score (44 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 68.2% expected score (4 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,038 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.1% expected score (2,609 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 54.9% expected score (635 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 61.4% expected score (47 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.8% expected score (1,121 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (2,180 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 57.1% expected score (457 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 53.2% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.1% expected score (918 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.6% expected score (1,259 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 62.5% expected score (119 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.8% expected score (222 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.3% expected score (150 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (13 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Dutch Defense
49.8%
Variations (5)
Dutch Defense: Alapin Variation
47.7%
Dutch Defense: Alekhine Variation
51.0%
Dutch Defense: Bellon Gambit
49.8%
Dutch Defense: Blackburne Variation
52.1%
Dutch Defense: Blackmar's Second Gambit
54.5%
Analyze Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate?

The Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 16K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation perform best?

The Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation performs best at 1400-1599 Elo with a 53.5% win rate for white (1.4K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Classical (61.4%) outperforms Bullet (49.8%) by 11.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation?

The Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a sharpness score of 95.1 (very decisive), meaning 95.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 41.4%-54.9%) win rate for white, based on 147 Lichess games. Average game length is 27 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 54.8% (90% CI: 50.6%-59.0%) win rate for white, based on 377 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 52.7% (90% CI: 49.6%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 740 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 53.5% (90% CI: 51.3%-55.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 52.1% (90% CI: 50.5%-53.7%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.3%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 4.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 50.9% (90% CI: 49.6%-52.2%) win rate for white, based on 3.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 51.7% (90% CI: 50.0%-53.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 46.7% (90% CI: 42.5%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 385 Lichess games. Average game length is 45 moves with a 14.4% draw rate.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.7%-51.0%) win rate for white (4.7K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.6%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 51.0% (90% CI: 50.2%-51.9%) win rate for white (9.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.4%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 55.9% (90% CI: 54.1%-57.6%) win rate for white (2.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.5%.

What is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation has a 61.4% (90% CI: 54.3%-68.3%) win rate for white (128 Lichess games). Draw rate is 8.1%.

Is the Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation a good opening?

The Dutch Defense: Fianchetto Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.4% (90% CI: 50.8%-52.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1400-1599 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.