3.4K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 52.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 51.1% and 53.9%), based on 3.4K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Stable across ratings (~46%)
Best in Rapid (57%), worst in Bullet (48%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1000-1199 | — | — | — | ||
| 1200-1399 | — | — | |||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | — | — | |||
| 1800-1999 | — | ||||
| 2000-2199 | — | ||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.1%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K rated games from Lichess.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line performs best at 1800-1999 Elo with a 54.4% win rate for white (485 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Rapid (56.9%) outperforms Bullet (48.4%) by 8.5%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a sharpness score of 94.5 (decisive), meaning 94.5% of games end decisively. Average game length is 37 moves.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 46.5% (90% CI: 40.2%-52.9%) win rate for white, based on 165 Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 5.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 54.4% (90% CI: 50.6%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 485 Lichess games. Average game length is 35 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 48.8% (90% CI: 46.2%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 993 Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 49.8% (90% CI: 47.5%-52.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 6.2% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 46.5% (90% CI: 42.7%-50.4%) win rate for white, based on 455 Lichess games. Average game length is 42 moves with a 6.7% draw rate.
In Bullet games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.8%) win rate for white (1.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.3%.
In Blitz games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 49.7% (90% CI: 47.9%-51.5%) win rate for white (2.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.3%.
In Rapid games, the Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line has a 56.9% (90% CI: 50.6%-63.1%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.8%.
The Dutch Defense: Classical Variation, Ilyin-Zhenevsky Variation, Modern Main Line is statistically balanced with a 49.7% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.1%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1800-1999 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.