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Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit

40K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.9%Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.3%Based on 40K games
0%50.9%100%
Range (90% confident): 50.5% – 51.3%
Outcome Distribution
48.9%3.9%47.2%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.e5
Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit
Analyzen=40K
Avg Length34 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.9%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 50.9% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 50.5% and 51.3%), based on 40K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Gambit BreakpointWhite

Peak: +3.2% · Breakpoint: 0-999

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 46% → 37%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 45.9% win rate (1,535 games)
  • 1000-1199: 47.2% win rate (2,735 games)
  • 1200-1399: 48.1% win rate (3,706 games)
  • 1400-1599: 48.6% win rate (5,642 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.1% win rate (7,381 games)
  • 1800-1999: 49.2% win rate (8,152 games)
  • 2000-2199: 50.6% win rate (7,040 games)
  • 2200-2499: 49.5% win rate (3,435 games)
  • 2500+: 37.3% win rate (123 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (51%), worst in UltraBullet (43%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.9% win rate (198 games)
  • Bullet: 50.5% win rate (9,636 games)
  • Blitz: 49.0% win rate (19,197 games)
  • Rapid: 47.8% win rate (10,225 games)
  • Classical: 44.0% win rate (493 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 46.3% expected score (239 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 47.2% expected score (890 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.0% expected score (402 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 61.2% expected score (3 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 30.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.6% expected score (375 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 47.5% expected score (1,486 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 49.1% expected score (857 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.4% expected score (16 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (1 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 48.1% expected score (544 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.2% expected score (1,805 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (1,306 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (50 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 31.1% expected score (46 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 51.4% expected score (888 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 50.9% expected score (2,947 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.3% expected score (1,658 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 56.3% expected score (103 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 48.2% expected score (54 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (975 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 50.7% expected score (4,124 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (2,015 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 43.3% expected score (213 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 51.0% expected score (47 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 50.5% expected score (1,386 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (4,176 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 50.4% expected score (2,449 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (94 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 36.3% expected score (35 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 53.1% expected score (3,540 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 52.0% expected score (2,379 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (1,072 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (13 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 51.7% expected score (1,584 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 51.7% expected score (1,373 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 54.1% expected score (465 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 35.9% expected score (105 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 69.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 30.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 40K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit performs best at 2000-2199 Elo with a 50.6% win rate for white (7.0K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (50.5%) outperforms UltraBullet (42.9%) by 7.6%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a sharpness score of 96.1 (very decisive), meaning 96.1% of games end decisively. Average game length is 34 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 45.9% (90% CI: 43.8%-48.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 47.2% (90% CI: 45.6%-48.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 48.1% (90% CI: 46.7%-49.4%) win rate for white, based on 3.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 48.6% (90% CI: 47.5%-49.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.6K Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 49.1% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.0%) win rate for white, based on 7.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 49.2% (90% CI: 48.2%-50.1%) win rate for white, based on 8.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 50.6% (90% CI: 49.6%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 7.0K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.1%-50.9%) win rate for white, based on 3.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 37.3% (90% CI: 30.4%-44.6%) win rate for white, based on 123 Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 6.0% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 42.9% (90% CI: 37.1%-48.6%) win rate for white (198 Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 50.5% (90% CI: 49.7%-51.3%) win rate for white (9.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 49.0% (90% CI: 48.4%-49.6%) win rate for white (19K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 47.8% (90% CI: 47.0%-48.6%) win rate for white (10K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.2%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 44.0% (90% CI: 40.3%-47.7%) win rate for white (493 Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit is statistically balanced with a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.4%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2000-2199 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.