Does Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit work for White at All Ratings?
Snapshot
At All Ratings, Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit gives White a +0.9% minimum advantage (90% confidence). This gambit is playable but marginal.
Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit
White GambitSource Lichess
View As
Playable+1%All Ratings
Minimum Advantage+0.9%
White wins at least 0.9% more often than loses
Rating TrendPeak: +3.2% at 2000-2199
Win%48.9%
Games40K
Breakpoint (Overall)0-999
3.e5
Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen GambitWhite Gambit
Rating
Time Control
| Rating | Min Adv | White Win | Draw | White Loss | Games |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | -9.0% | 45.9% | 3.4% | 50.7% | 1.5K |
| 1000-1199 | -5.6% | 47.2% | 3.2% | 49.6% | 2.7K |
| 1200-1399 | -3.4% | 48.1% | 3.2% | 48.7% | 3.7K |
| 1400-1599 | -2.0% | 48.6% | 3.0% | 48.4% | 5.6K |
| 1600-1799 | -0.1% | 49.1% | 3.7% | 47.2% | 7.4K |
| 1800-1999 | +1.1% | 49.2% | 4.6% | 46.2% | 8.2K |
| 2000-2199 | +3.2% | 50.6% | 4.0% | 45.4% | 7.0K |
| 2200-2499 | +1.3% | 49.5% | 5.2% | 45.4% | 3.4K |
| 2500+ | -33.4% | 37.3% | 6.0% | 56.6% | 123 |
Full Opening StatsSee rating/time-control breakdowns for White on the opening stats page
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer
Frequently Asked Questions
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit sound?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit breaks at 0-999 overall (all time controls)—the first rating bracket where White no longer statistically wins more than loses. Below this rating, the gambit is viable for White. Note: breakpoints vary by time control—use the filters above for specific data.
What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit win rate?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit has a 48.9% (90% CI: 48.5%-49.4%) win rate for White overall, with a 3.9% draw rate and 47.2% loss rate. This is based on 40K games from Lichess.
What is the best rating to play the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit performs best at 2000-2199, where White has a minimum advantage of +3.2%. This means we're 90% confident White wins at least 3.2 percentage points more than they lose at this rating.
Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit better in blitz or rapid?
Bullet (+1.8% edge) outperforms UltraBullet (+-24.0% edge) by 25.8 percentage points. Faster time controls typically favor gambits because opponents have less time to find accurate defenses.
Does the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit breakpoint vary by time control?
Yes, significantly. Breakpoints by time control: Bullet: 0-999, Blitz: 0-999, Rapid: 0-999, Classical: 1200-1399. "Never" means the gambit remains viable through all rating brackets in that time control. Faster time controls typically extend viability.
How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit?
The Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit is extremely sharp with only 3.9% draws—96.1% of games end decisively. This makes it an excellent choice when you need to play for a win rather than accept a draw.
Should I play the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit?
If you're below 0-999 overall, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit is statistically favorable for White. Above that rating, opponents defend better and the gambit's edge disappears. Consider your typical opponents' level and the time control—faster games extend the gambit's viability.
How do I defend against the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit?
As Black, the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit becomes easier to defend at 0-999 and above. Key principles: accept the material but develop quickly, castle early, trade pieces to reduce attacking potential, and return material at the right moment to neutralize the initiative. In faster time controls, the gambit is harder to defend—consider declining or transposing if you're not prepared.
How reliable is the Caro-Kann Defense: Toikkanen Gambit data?
This analysis is based on 40K games from Lichess. All statistics include 90% confidence intervals. Generally, 300+ games provide statistically meaningful results. Rating-specific and time-control-specific breakdowns have their own sample sizes shown in the table above.