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Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack

14K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

Playable
White Expected Score50.5%Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 51.2%Based on 14K games
0%50.5%100%
Range (90% confident): 49.8% – 51.2%
Outcome Distribution
48.5%4.0%47.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.h3
Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack
Analyzen=14K
Avg Length35 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate4.0%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 50.5% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 49.8% and 51.2%), based on 14K Lichess games.

Extra Analysis

Deep-dive datasets for this opening

Time-Control Swing

Max swing: 12.4% · Bullet best · Classical worst

White Win% by Rating

Declines with rating: 50% → 47%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 49.9% win rate (611 games)
  • 1000-1199: 48.4% win rate (1,189 games)
  • 1200-1399: 47.6% win rate (1,834 games)
  • 1400-1599: 46.0% win rate (2,267 games)
  • 1600-1799: 49.8% win rate (2,735 games)
  • 1800-1999: 48.8% win rate (2,361 games)
  • 2000-2199: 48.4% win rate (2,094 games)
  • 2200-2499: 50.6% win rate (1,165 games)
  • 2500+: 47.4% win rate (204 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (50%), worst in Classical (37%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 42.2% win rate (168 games)
  • Bullet: 49.5% win rate (5,168 games)
  • Blitz: 49.5% win rate (5,903 games)
  • Rapid: 45.9% win rate (3,062 games)
  • Classical: 37.1% win rate (159 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999——
1000-1199—
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499—
2500+——

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 47.9% expected score (94 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (340 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 52.3% expected score (177 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 53.7% expected score (217 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 50.3% expected score (576 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 48.5% expected score (389 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 32.4% expected score (7 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 37.0% expected score (33 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 54.8% expected score (305 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 50.5% expected score (779 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 47.1% expected score (690 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 48.3% expected score (27 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 42.0% expected score (98 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 46.2% expected score (479 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 49.2% expected score (942 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 48.4% expected score (706 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 29.3% expected score (42 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.5% expected score (13 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 53.5% expected score (697 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 52.7% expected score (1,455 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 47.5% expected score (504 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 52.3% expected score (66 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 70.0% expected score (11 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 49.1% expected score (1,116 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 52.8% expected score (891 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.5% expected score (328 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 25.8% expected score (15 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 19.3% expected score (5 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 49.7% expected score (1,253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 54.6% expected score (581 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 44.0% expected score (253 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (2 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 39.5% expected score (8 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (821 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 55.0% expected score (322 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (14 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 51.3% expected score (186 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 50.0% expected score (17 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 50.0% expected score (1 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.2%) win rate for white, based on 14K rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack performs best at 1600-1799 Elo with a 49.8% win rate for white (2.7K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack better in blitz or rapid?

Blitz (49.5%) outperforms Classical (37.1%) by 12.4%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack?

The Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a sharpness score of 96.0 (very decisive), meaning 96.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 35 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 49.9% (90% CI: 46.6%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 611 Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 4.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.0%-50.8%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 47.6% (90% CI: 45.7%-49.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.8K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 46.0% (90% CI: 44.3%-47.8%) win rate for white, based on 2.3K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 49.8% (90% CI: 48.3%-51.4%) win rate for white, based on 2.7K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 48.8% (90% CI: 47.1%-50.5%) win rate for white, based on 2.4K Lichess games. Average game length is 37 moves with a 4.4% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 48.4% (90% CI: 46.6%-50.2%) win rate for white, based on 2.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 50.6% (90% CI: 48.2%-53.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.2K Lichess games. Average game length is 40 moves with a 5.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 47.4% (90% CI: 41.7%-53.2%) win rate for white, based on 204 Lichess games. Average game length is 43 moves with a 7.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 42.2% (90% CI: 36.0%-48.5%) win rate for white (168 Lichess games). Draw rate is 0.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.3%-50.6%) win rate for white (5.2K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 49.5% (90% CI: 48.4%-50.6%) win rate for white (5.9K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.8%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 45.9% (90% CI: 44.4%-47.4%) win rate for white (3.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 5.0%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack has a 37.1% (90% CI: 30.9%-43.4%) win rate for white (159 Lichess games). Draw rate is 9.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: St. Patrick's Attack is statistically balanced with a 48.5% (90% CI: 47.8%-49.2%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 1600-1799 Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.