5.3K games from Lichess · Updated January 2026
At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 56.1% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 55.0% and 57.2%), based on 5.3K Lichess games.
Deep-dive datasets for this opening
Improves with rating: 48% → 57%
Best in UltraBullet (58%), worst in Classical (7%)
Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.
| Rating | UB | Bulle | Blitz | Rapid | Class |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-999 | — | ||||
| 1000-1199 | — | ||||
| 1200-1399 | — | ||||
| 1400-1599 | — | ||||
| 1600-1799 | |||||
| 1800-1999 | |||||
| 2000-2199 | |||||
| 2200-2499 | — | ||||
| 2500+ | — | — | — |
Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control
The Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-55.7%) win rate for white, based on 5.3K rated games from Lichess.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 57.0% win rate for white (712 games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.
Bullet (54.8%) outperforms Rapid (43.9%) by 10.9%. Choose your time control wisely.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a sharpness score of 97.0 (very decisive), meaning 97.0% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.
At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 56.1% (90% CI: 48.8%-63.2%) win rate for white, based on 126 Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.
At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 55.7% (90% CI: 51.0%-60.4%) win rate for white, based on 299 Lichess games. Average game length is 30 moves with a 3.8% draw rate.
At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 54.1% (90% CI: 50.8%-57.3%) win rate for white, based on 628 Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 1.7% draw rate.
At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 52.2% (90% CI: 49.7%-54.6%) win rate for white, based on 1.1K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 2.2% draw rate.
At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 55.9% (90% CI: 53.8%-58.1%) win rate for white, based on 1.5K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.0% draw rate.
At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 53.9% (90% CI: 51.1%-56.7%) win rate for white, based on 834 Lichess games. Average game length is 33 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.
At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 57.0% (90% CI: 53.9%-60.0%) win rate for white, based on 712 Lichess games. Average game length is 38 moves with a 4.6% draw rate.
In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 57.5% (90% CI: 52.9%-62.1%) win rate for white (314 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.4%.
In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 54.8% (90% CI: 53.5%-56.1%) win rate for white (3.8K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.7%.
In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 54.6% (90% CI: 51.9%-57.2%) win rate for white (980 Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.4%.
In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit has a 43.9% (90% CI: 37.1%-50.7%) win rate for white (141 Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.5%.
The Caro-Kann Defense: Scorpion-Horus Gambit is statistically favors white with a 54.6% (90% CI: 53.5%-55.7%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.