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Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation

1.7M games from Lichess · Updated January 2026

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White Expected Score53.7%Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%Based on 1.7M games
0%53.7%100%
Range (90% confident): 53.6% – 53.8%
Outcome Distribution
51.9%3.6%44.5%
Win
Draw
Loss
3.f3
Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation
Analyzen=1.7M
Avg Length32 moves
Sharpness96%
Draw Rate3.6%

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation expected score for White?

Snapshot

At all ratings, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 53.7% expected score for White (we're 90% confident it's between 53.6% and 53.8%), based on 1.7M Lichess games.

White Win% by Rating

Improves with rating: 48% → 53%

0
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2500+

  • 0-999: 48.1% win rate (48,513 games)
  • 1000-1199: 50.4% win rate (77,870 games)
  • 1200-1399: 51.3% win rate (134,300 games)
  • 1400-1599: 51.8% win rate (227,799 games)
  • 1600-1799: 52.5% win rate (320,254 games)
  • 1800-1999: 52.2% win rate (374,415 games)
  • 2000-2199: 51.6% win rate (307,820 games)
  • 2200-2499: 52.5% win rate (174,859 games)
  • 2500+: 53.4% win rate (38,312 games)

White Win% by Time Control

Best in Bullet (53%), worst in Classical (48%)

UltraBullet
Bullet
Blitz
Rapid
Classical

  • UltraBullet: 51.8% win rate (2,598 games)
  • Bullet: 53.3% win rate (569,941 games)
  • Blitz: 51.5% win rate (874,373 games)
  • Rapid: 50.2% win rate (248,098 games)
  • Classical: 48.3% win rate (9,132 games)

White% by Rating × Time Control

Click any cell to filter. Green = above 50%, Red = below 50%.

RatingUBBulleBlitzRapidClass
0-999
1000-1199
1200-1399
1400-1599
1600-1799
1800-1999
2000-2199
2200-2499
2500+

Expected score matrix by rating bracket and time control

  • 0-999 rating, UltraBullet: 54.6% expected score (42 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Bullet: 49.5% expected score (10,299 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Blitz: 50.4% expected score (24,379 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Rapid: 49.6% expected score (13,671 games)
  • 0-999 rating, Classical: 41.1% expected score (122 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, UltraBullet: 52.7% expected score (93 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Bullet: 52.7% expected score (22,358 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Blitz: 52.3% expected score (35,598 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Rapid: 50.8% expected score (19,453 games)
  • 1000-1199 rating, Classical: 41.6% expected score (368 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, UltraBullet: 43.9% expected score (261 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Bullet: 53.2% expected score (44,631 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (62,152 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Rapid: 51.3% expected score (26,414 games)
  • 1200-1399 rating, Classical: 47.9% expected score (842 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, UltraBullet: 51.1% expected score (880 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Bullet: 54.4% expected score (71,930 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Blitz: 53.1% expected score (117,126 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Rapid: 51.6% expected score (36,250 games)
  • 1400-1599 rating, Classical: 46.2% expected score (1,613 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, UltraBullet: 53.3% expected score (737 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Bullet: 55.1% expected score (93,172 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Blitz: 53.9% expected score (177,238 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Rapid: 52.5% expected score (47,145 games)
  • 1600-1799 rating, Classical: 51.1% expected score (1,962 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, UltraBullet: 55.4% expected score (297 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Bullet: 55.2% expected score (113,643 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Blitz: 53.7% expected score (203,497 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Rapid: 53.0% expected score (54,230 games)
  • 1800-1999 rating, Classical: 54.7% expected score (2,748 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, UltraBullet: 57.0% expected score (249 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Bullet: 54.7% expected score (99,735 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Blitz: 53.2% expected score (167,116 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Rapid: 53.9% expected score (39,471 games)
  • 2000-2199 rating, Classical: 55.2% expected score (1,249 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, UltraBullet: 60.4% expected score (37 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Bullet: 54.9% expected score (85,085 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Blitz: 54.8% expected score (78,432 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Rapid: 55.9% expected score (11,085 games)
  • 2200-2499 rating, Classical: 61.1% expected score (220 games)
  • 2500+ rating, UltraBullet: 78.6% expected score (2 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Bullet: 55.8% expected score (29,088 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Blitz: 57.5% expected score (8,835 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Rapid: 57.9% expected score (379 games)
  • 2500+ rating, Classical: 50.0% expected score (8 games)

Related Openings

Parent
Caro-Kann Defense
47.6%
Variations (5)
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack
51.4%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Modern Variation
50.0%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Open Variation
48.9%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Pseudo-Scandinavian
86.7%
Caro-Kann Defense: Accelerated Panov Attack, Van Weersel Attack
45.6%
Continuations (1)
Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation, Maróczy Gambit
60.3%
Analyze Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation PositionsGet move-by-move win rates with the TrueElo analyzer

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 1.7M rated games from Lichess.

At what rating does the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation perform best?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation performs best at 2500+ Elo with a 53.4% win rate for white (38K games). Win rate tends to decline at higher ratings as opponents know the theory better.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation better in blitz or rapid?

Bullet (53.3%) outperforms Classical (48.3%) by 5.0%. Choose your time control wisely.

How sharp is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a sharpness score of 96.4 (very decisive), meaning 96.4% of games end decisively. Average game length is 32 moves.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 0-999 Elo?

At 0-999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 48.1% (90% CI: 47.7%-48.5%) win rate for white, based on 49K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1000-1199 Elo?

At 1000-1199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 50.4% (90% CI: 50.1%-50.7%) win rate for white, based on 78K Lichess games. Average game length is 28 moves with a 3.2% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1200-1399 Elo?

At 1200-1399 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 51.3% (90% CI: 51.1%-51.6%) win rate for white, based on 134K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.7% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1400-1599 Elo?

At 1400-1599 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 51.6%-52.0%) win rate for white, based on 228K Lichess games. Average game length is 29 moves with a 2.8% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1600-1799 Elo?

At 1600-1799 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.6%) win rate for white, based on 320K Lichess games. Average game length is 31 moves with a 3.1% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 1800-1999 Elo?

At 1800-1999 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 52.2% (90% CI: 52.1%-52.4%) win rate for white, based on 374K Lichess games. Average game length is 32 moves with a 3.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 2000-2199 Elo?

At 2000-2199 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 51.6% (90% CI: 51.5%-51.8%) win rate for white, based on 308K Lichess games. Average game length is 34 moves with a 4.3% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 2200-2499 Elo?

At 2200-2499 Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 52.5% (90% CI: 52.3%-52.7%) win rate for white, based on 175K Lichess games. Average game length is 36 moves with a 4.9% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate at 2500+ Elo?

At 2500+ Elo, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 53.4% (90% CI: 53.0%-53.8%) win rate for white, based on 38K Lichess games. Average game length is 39 moves with a 5.5% draw rate.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in UltraBullet?

In UltraBullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 51.8% (90% CI: 50.1%-53.4%) win rate for white (2.6K Lichess games). Draw rate is 1.1%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Bullet?

In Bullet games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 53.3% (90% CI: 53.2%-53.4%) win rate for white (570K Lichess games). Draw rate is 2.6%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Blitz?

In Blitz games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 51.5% (90% CI: 51.4%-51.6%) win rate for white (874K Lichess games). Draw rate is 3.9%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Rapid?

In Rapid games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 50.2% (90% CI: 50.0%-50.3%) win rate for white (248K Lichess games). Draw rate is 4.5%.

What is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation win rate in Classical?

In Classical games, the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation has a 48.3% (90% CI: 47.4%-49.1%) win rate for white (9.1K Lichess games). Draw rate is 6.0%.

Is the Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation a good opening?

The Caro-Kann Defense: Maróczy Variation is statistically favors white with a 51.9% (90% CI: 51.8%-52.0%) win rate across all ratings. It performs best at 2500+ Elo. Your results depend on your rating, time control, and how well you know the typical plans.